BTC

ETH

S&P 500 Futures

$67,700.00

$2,616.50

$5,879.00

(+1.23%)

 (+0.76%)

(+0.26%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)


GM 🌳

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • US reveals $425M military aid for Ukraine; Japan’s exports at steepest decline since 2021 (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • Radiant Capital loses $50M in attack; Trump-Backed WLF token sale struggles with low Sales and website outages (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Treehouse Squirrel Council NFTs FP and volume spike; BTC transactions at highest levels in 10 weeks (More in On-Chain)
  • BTC and ETH options show positive skews; IV stabilizes for BTC(More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • Both BTC and ETH showed a slowdown in momentum as prices remained stagnant in the previous trading session (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

The United States has announced a new $425M military aid package for Ukraine, aiming to bolster Kyiv’s defenses amid ongoing conflict with Russia. This package, which includes air defense systems, munitions, armored vehicles, and other critical equipment, is part of a broader $60B aid allocation authorized earlier this year. The aid comes as President Biden seeks to reinforce U.S. support for Ukraine before his term potentially ends. In addition to this immediate package, the U.S. plans to provide Ukraine with hundreds of air defense interceptors, tactical air defense systems, artillery, ammunition, and thousands of armored vehicles in the coming months. This assistance underscores the Biden administration’s commitment to Ukraine’s security and reflects strategic priorities as political and military dynamics continue to evolve.

Elsewhere, Japan’s exports fell by 1.7% in September, marking the steepest decline since February 2021, as global demand waned, particularly for cars, mineral fuels, and construction machinery. This shift, which missed forecasts of a slight gain, signals Japan's economic recovery is facing headwinds from weak external demand. Imports rose by 2.1%, led by electronic goods, but fell short of expectations, resulting in a trade deficit of $2B. The decline reflects broader global challenges, with reduced demand from major trading partners like China, the U.S., and Europe, which saw drops in Japanese exports of 7.3%, 2.4%, and 9%, respectively. This slowdown coincides with central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, lowering rates to counteract economic slowdowns, though Japan's central bank is expected to hold steady. The yen's near 150 level to the dollar adds another layer of uncertainty, as a weaker yen boosts exporter profits but raises import costs, affecting households. Overall, these factors suggest Japan’s net exports could weigh on third-quarter growth, while domestic factors like yen fluctuations and inflation pressures will continue to influence the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions.

Lastly, on Wednesday, U.S. stock indexes rebounded, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.8% to reach a new record closing high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite added 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. The semiconductor sector bounced back, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index rising 0.2% as Nvidia surged 3.1%, alongside gains in Broadcom, Arm Holdings, Micron, and Marvell Technology. In contrast, large-cap tech stocks were down, with Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon all declining. Banking stocks led Wednesday’s gains, with Morgan Stanley climbing 6.5% and U.S. Bancorp rising 4.7%, fueled by strong earnings. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index rose 1.7%, reflecting optimism in the financial sector. United Airlines surged 12% after strong earnings and a stock buyback announcement, while Delta added 6.8%. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Treasurys fell to 4.02%, dipping below 4% during the session, as investors watched for upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve signals on future rate cuts. Key macroeconomic data releases include China's GDP growth on Friday at 10:00 SGT, with US retail sales and jobless claims on Thursday at 20:30 SGT.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Radiant Capital loses $50M in exploit
  • Trump’s WLFI token launches in underwhelming manner
  • DTCC launches digital sandbox
  • Tether’s USDT reaches 330M wallets

Radiant Capital, a lending protocol, suffered a major cyberattack on October 16, resulting in the loss of over $50 million. The attackers compromised three out of the 11 private keys needed to control Radiant's smart contracts, exploiting vulnerabilities on Binance Chain (BSC) and Arbitrum. This is the second significant breach for Radiant this year, following a $4.5 million exploit in January. The attackers drained funds including USDC, WBNB, and ETH. Radiant has paused operations on several chains and is working with security firms to address the breach.

Meanwhile, World Liberty Financial (WLF), the crypto project backed by Donald Trump and his family, faced significant challenges during its token sale launch. The website experienced multiple outages due to high traffic, stalling sales to just 1.7% of the 20 billion tokens offered in the first hours. While over 344 million tokens were sold to around 3,000 wallets, this was far below the $300 million target.

On-Chain

The on-chain analysis of Treehouse Protocol’s NFT collection, Treehouse Squirrel Council (TSC), shows a significant spike in both floor price and trading volume. The floor price of the TSC NFTs surged, reaching over 0.25 ETH, while the trading volume spiked sharply around the same time, marking a major increase compared to the previous period. The surge in activity highlights heightened demand likely driven by the recent cap raise of Treehouse's tETH vault on October 16th. The Treehouse Squirrel Council (TSC) NFTs provide additional rewards to tETH holders on top of their staking rewards, which likely fueled the increase in both floor price and trading volume.

In an on-chain analysis by Santiment, Bitcoin’s whale transactions surged to their highest level in over 10 weeks, with 11,697 transactions exceeding $100,000 on Tuesday. Social media sentiment also shifted heavily toward Bitcoin, with over 25.5% of all crypto-related discussions focusing on BTC, marking its highest dominance since July. These indicators suggest heightened interest from both large holders and retail traders.

Derivatives

  • Funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive. 
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH dipped slightly to 57.29% and 62.62% respectively.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH rose to 1.92 and 1.05 respectively.
  • The futures market witnessed $125.35M in liquidations in the last 24 hours, with longs representing 57.78%.

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

38.38%

AVAX

OKX

dYdX

36.68%

DOGE

Binance

dYdX

36.13%

DOGE

OKX

dYdX

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.


The 7-day and 30-day at-the-money IV for BTC has slightly dipped to 46.75 and 56.44, respectively, likely due to the absence of major BTC-specific catalysts in the near term. Spot price action has remained largely range-bound between $60K and $70K over the past month, which may be fueling speculation that significant price swings are unlikely before the upcoming US election.

BTC's term structure remains in contango, showing minimal changes across the curve since yesterday. Notably, interest from option buyers is concentrated at the 7-day and 30-day tenors, highlighting a focus on short-term positioning.

BTC call-put skews have risen, with the 7-day skew at 2.26 and the 30-day at 1.92, reflecting sustained bullish sentiment even as demand for downside protection increases. This suggests that the market remains optimistic about BTC's potential for further gains.

Meanwhile, ETH skews have shifted into positive territory, with the 7-day skew at 1.05 and the 30-day at 0.90, marking a notable change in sentiment after being negative for most of October. This shift in ETH skew points to a more balanced outlook, signaling potential upward momentum for Ethereum.

Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted a mix of structures, with more bullish structures bought. For BTC, the top trades included a 670x 27-Dec-24 $75K/$110K Custom Call Spread, sold, alongside a 600x 28-Mar-25 $120K Calls, bought. For ETH, the largest flows featured a 1500x 25-Oct-24/1-Nov-24 $2.5K Put Calendar, bought, and a 1000x 29-Nov-24 $3.5K Calls, bought.

Crypto Technical Analysis

Moving on to technical analysis, BTC's growth has been stagnant in the previous trading session, despite a temporary break above the $68K threshold. The price has since stabilized around the $67.5K level, showing no clear signs of another bullish surge toward the $70K level, which serves as the next immediate resistance and local high. The RSI remains elevated in overbought territory, indicating extreme conditions in the market. If the price experiences a short-term correction, it may briefly retrace to $66K before potentially moving higher.

On the other hand, ETH has also experienced stagnant growth, with prices moving sideways. Consequently, the RSI has returned to more neutral ranges at 61, indicating a cooldown from the heated market movements of the past few days. With no significant changes in the technical patterns, our previous analysis still stands, with $2.7K serving as the immediate resistance and $2.35K as the key support level.

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