BTC

ETH

S&P Futures 500

$28,385.50

$1,565.00

$4,386.00

(+0.32%)

 (-1.75%)

(-0.32%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)


GM Treehouser 🌳

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • U.S. retail sales exceed forecasts, showing robust growth; Biden tightens AI chip export controls (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • Fantom Foundation wallets drained of $657K; BC Technology denies reports of $128M crypto exchange sale (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Whale concentration increases in Ethereum; Machi Big Brother accumulates and withdraws $APE consistently (More in On-Chain)
  • BTC term structures maintain contango; Skews indicate sustained bullish sentiment on BTC (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC breaks above critical support; ETH tests a pivotal resistance (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

In September, U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations with a 0.7% increase, driven by heightened motor vehicle purchases and higher spending in restaurants and bars, signaling a robust acceleration in third-quarter economic growth. Concurrently, manufacturing production saw a solid 0.4% uptick, even amidst automobile industry strikes. Such promising data has led Goldman Sachs to upgrade its third-quarter GDP growth estimate to an annualized rate of 4.0%. This robust performance, alongside strong employment and consumer price metrics, intensifies the likelihood of the Federal Reserve considering an interest rate hike by year-end or early next year.

In other news, the Biden administration has updated and tightened export controls on advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips, further restricting companies like Nvidia from selling these high-performance semiconductors to China. This decision aligns with efforts to curb China's access to critical chips that could benefit its military's technological advancement in AI and computing. Following the announcement, Nvidia shares dropped, given that nearly 25% of its data center chip revenues originate from China. The newly introduced controls address loopholes from previous regulations set in 2022 and establish more stringent performance criteria that chips must meet before they can be sold to Chinese entities.

Yesterday, US equities displayed mixed responses amid geopolitical concerns overshadowing the earnings season: the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite declined by -0.01% and -0.33%, respectively, while the DJIA edged up by 0.04%. The two-year Treasury yield surged 0.09 percentage points to a 17-year high of 5.20%, reflecting anticipated interest rate changes. Nvidia's stock dipped by 4.68% following US restrictions on its specialized chips for China. Market participants are keenly awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Economic Club of New York, while China's Q3 GDP release is also in focus today.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Fantom Foundation wallets drained of $657K
  • BC Technology denies reports of $128M crypto exchange sale
  • Scroll confirms mainnet live; co-founder predicts speed gains over Ethereum
  • Platypus Finance recovers 90% of assets lost in exploit
  • Immutable delays $67M token vesting by another year
  • FTX plans to return 90% of distributable value to customers
  • Binance.US halts direct dollar withdrawals

Foundation wallets associated with the Fantom blockchain have been drained on both Ethereum and Fantom, resulting in losses of $470K on FTM and $187K on Ethereum. The exploit appears to be related to a zero-day vulnerability in the Chrome browser, and the stolen funds have been moved to a wallet holding approximately $7M worth of ether (ETH). Fantom's native token, FTM, experienced a 4.8% price drop following the incident. Security analysts and the community are actively tracking the movements of the lost funds.

BC Technology, the parent company of Hong Kong-based crypto exchange OSL, has refuted recent reports that OSL is up for sale. In a filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, BC Technology called Bloomberg's report on the sale "factually inaccurate and highly misleading." Bloomberg initially reported that OSL was being offered for sale with a valuation of 1 billion Hong Kong dollars ($128M). OSL and HashKey are the only two licensed crypto exchanges in Hong Kong under the new regulations that allow them to serve retail customers. This has attracted increasing client interest following recent enforcement against unlicensed players, like JPEX. BC Technology’s stock declined 22%, and according to public balance sheets, OSL is their primary source of income.

On-Chain

According to recent on-chain data insights from @santimentfeed, for the first time since 2016, Ethereum's ‘billionaire’ whale addresses who hold a minimum of 1M $ETH now command 32.3% of the accessible supply. Additionally, the market’s vigor is further underscored by the fact that just yesterday, transactions surpassing the $1M mark witnessed their second-most active day in the past five weeks. These developments spotlight a notable power concentration within the Ethereum ecosystem, with major holders amplifying their stakes.

Moving on, data from @lookonchain reveals that Machi Big Brother has exhibited a consistent bullish stance on $APE, accumulating the asset every day since August 2nd, reaching a significant 4.73M tokens ($7.43M). Notably, there was also a withdrawal of 2.5M $APE ($4.49M) from Binance. This sustained buying activity and subsequent withdrawal hint at a strategic long-term holding perspective on $APE, signaling confidence in its future value trajectory.

Crypto Derivatives

  • Funding rates remain positive for both BTC and ETH.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH slightly dipped, now sitting at 40.85% and 35.00%, respectively.
  • 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC remains positive at 1.60% while ETH sits at -2.37%.
  • The futures market witnessed $57.30M worth of liquidations, with longs representing 68.83% of the total.

Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

20.74%

SOL

dYdX

Bybit

9.81%

DOGE

dYdX

Binance

8.59%

ETH

dYdX

Binance

Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.


In the recent 24-hour analysis, BTC's IV (Implied Volatility) has now cooled down following the surge driven by Cointelegraph’s fake news. The 7-day IV now is at 34.57%, paralleled by the 30-day IV, which sits at 36.08%.

Turning now to term structures, BTC and ETH continue to underscore a contango structure, with minimal changes on the curve over the last 24 hours. For BTC, the front end of the curve saw a dip as investors came to grasp the fake BTC spot ETF news, suggesting that they do not think a spot ETF release would come soon.

Diving into the skew dynamics, despite now pulling back slightly, 30-day and 7-day 25-delta (C-P) skews still remain positive with a continued upward trajectory, gaining to 1.58% and 2.08% respectively. This suggests that investors are continuously bullish on BTC.

Based on @Paradigm's data through US Session Hours yesterday, notable BTC option movements encompassed the procurement of a 1000x 29-Dec-23 27500 put calendar and a 450x 24-Nov-23 32000/40000 BTC call spread, both bought. Additionally, there were transactions of 325x 24-Nov-23 31000 BTC calls bought, 275x 27-Oct-23 29000 BTC calls sold, and 275x 24-Nov-23 32000 BTC calls bought.

Crypto Technical Analysis

On the daily chart for BTC, BTC is currently trading around the $28.3K mark. Notably, the price has broken above the Bull Market Support Band, an amalgamation of the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently valued at approximately $27.9K and $27.2K, respectively. This band traditionally acts as a critical support region during bullish market phases, implying that maintaining above this range is essential for BTC's continued bullish momentum. Over the past weeks, BTC has tested the upper boundary of this support band multiple times, reinforcing its significance as a support. Additionally, the RSI sits at 63.53, suggesting that it is moving into an overbought condition.

On the daily chart for ETH, Ethereum currently trades around $1.57K, closely approaching the Bull Market Support Band which is positioned between $1.76K and $1.74K. This region is pivotal, serving as an immediate resistance zone. If ETH surpasses this threshold, the next notable resistance is approximately $1.75K, signifying a potential ascent of nearly 12% from its current price. Conversely, if the prevailing support at $1.56K is compromised, ETH might target the subsequent support zone near $1.44K. The RSI is at 42.79, leaning toward a neutral territory but displaying a faint bearish momentum. Lastly, the price exhibits a descending wedge, marking a possible pattern of consecutive lower highs that traders should observe attentively.

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