BTC

ETH

S&P Futures 500

$69,558.54

$3,692.71

$5,354.50

(-1.84%)

 (-3.03%)

(-0.23%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)


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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • The US job market shows resilience; Saudi Aramco's stock sale raises $11.2B (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • Trump champions cryptocurrency; Io.net CEO resigns amid controversy before token launch (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Bitcoin short-term SOPR falls to the breakeven point, potentially signalling a local bottom (More in On-Chain)
  • Bitcoin's IV increased due to higher-than-expected U.S. jobs data; Shadow-term structure maintains contango structure (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC and ETH declined sharply before price starts consolidating (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

The US economy added significantly more jobs than expected in May, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 272,000 and annual wage growth reaccelerating to 4.1%, highlighting the labor market's resilience. The unemployment rate edged up to 4% from 3.9%, breaking a 27-month streak of sub-4% rates. This data reduces the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, slashing market expectations from 70% to 55%. Key sectors contributing to job gains include healthcare, government, leisure and hospitality, and professional services. The Fed is expected to maintain its current interest rate range of 5.25% to 5.5%, focusing on inflation control while monitoring economic conditions.

Elsewhere, shares of Saudi Aramco rose on Sunday after a stock sale set to raise around $11.2 billion, trading at 28.85 Saudi riyals ($7.69) on the Tadāwul Saudi stock exchange, above the offer price of 27.25 Saudi riyals. The high demand for the secondary offering, announced on May 30, reportedly topped $65 billion, with over half the shares sold to foreign investors. This move aligns with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 program, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aiming to diversify the economy away from oil. Despite ambitious projects like the $500 billion city of Neom, the oil market remains volatile, influenced by uncertain demand and delayed expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Last Friday, Wall Street closed lower as surging Treasury yields, prompted by strong US payroll data, pushed back expectations for easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.22%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.11%. Nvidia extended losses, with its market cap falling below the $3 trillion mark. GameStop plummeted 39.38% after reporting weak Q1 results and announcing plans to sell up to 75 million additional shares. Meanwhile, the Euro fell 0.3% to its weakest in a month following election defeats for Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz in the European Parliament elections. All eyes are now on the US Core CPI data due Wednesday at 20:30 SGT.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Donald Trump doubles down on crypto support at fundraiser event
  • Io.net CEO Ahmad Shadid steps down from CEO role days before token launch
  • Binance reaches 200M users with $100B in assets under custody
  • Orbit Chain exploiter moves $48 million through Tornado Cash after months of post-hack dormancy
  • New York AG pushes back against DCG, Silbert’s motion to dismiss fraud case

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified his cryptocurrency advocacy as part of his 2024 presidential campaign, aiming to become the "crypto president," according to a Reuters report. At a fundraising event in San Francisco, hosted by Craft Ventures' David Sacks and tech billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya, Trump reportedly announced his goal and raised $12 million. He reiterated his support for crypto, contrasting it with the Democratic Party's regulatory stance. This follows President Joe Biden's controversial veto of a resolution aimed at overturning the SEC's crypto accounting guidelines. Trump has publicly emphasized the importance of U.S. leadership in the crypto industry, stating, "Our country must be the leader in the field, there is no second place," and expressing his positive outlook on cryptocurrency companies.

In other news, Io.net CEO Ahmad Shadid steps down just days before the company's token launch on Binance Launchpad amid controversy and criticism over alleged misreported statistics and a Sybil attack. Co-founder and former COO Tory Green will take over as CEO, aiming to steer Io.net towards becoming the world's largest AI computing network. Shadid cited the need to avoid distractions and contribute to the company's growth, pledging one million tokens to the Internet of GPUs Foundation. Despite the leadership change, questions remain about the allegations and the timing of Shadid's resignation.

On-Chain

Based on an analysis by CryptoQuant, the BTC short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has declined back to a level of 1. SOPR is calculated by dividing the realized value by the value at the creation of a spent output. In essence, SOPR indicates the profit and loss of short-term holders and acts as an indicator of potential selling pressures, as short-term holders frequently take profits. As this metric returns to the breakeven point, it may suggest that BTC has potentially retracted to a short-term bottom, as the average short-term holder has no more room for profit-taking activities. 

Derivatives

  • Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC remained relatively unchanged at 51.83% while ETH increased to 63.36%.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH increased to 2.66% and 3.46%, respectively.
  • The futures market witnessed $530.47M in liquidations, with longs  representing 82.87%.

Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

15.24%

XRP

OKX

Binance

12.58%

AVAX

OKX

dYdX

11.53%

AVAX

OKX

Binance

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.


Bitcoin's 7-day and 30-day ATM IV decreased during the start of the weekend before increasing to 47.27% and 50.12%, respectively. The higher-than-expected U.S. jobs data last Friday appeared to have injected certainty in the markets, which saw IV decreasing. However, IV started to rise again after Donald Trump reiterated his goal to be “Crypto President”.

BTC's term structure remains in contango, with an increase in volatility across short-term tenures of up to 7-days, before remaining the same across the curve over longer-termed tenures, indicating that option investors anticipate lower volatility in BTC in the middle to long-term.

Additionally, BTC's 25-delta skews have increased over the weekend, with the 7-day and 30-day skews increasing to 2.52% and 2.66%, respectively. This sharp increase in 7-day skews could be attributed to investor’s reaction to the higher-than-expected U.S. jobs data last Friday, which suggests the US may have avoided a recession.

Lastly, @Paradigm’s option flows from yesterday emphasized strategies consisting of call spreads and calls. Key BTC trades encompassed the procurement of 1437x 26-Jul-24 92K/100K Call Spread, 1112x 28-Jun-24 74k/80K Call spread, and 821x 21-Jun-24 78K/82K Call Spread. In the ETH space, significant trades included the sale of 6500x 28-Jun-24 5000 Call and the purchase of 5900x 27-Dec-24 5000 Calls.

Crypto Technical Analysis

Moving on to technical analysis, BTC experienced a swift downturn since Friday’s Asian market close. As a result, the price was effectively rejected at the $71K resistance level, further reinforcing its strength as the immediate resistance to watch if the bulls were to regain control of the market. On the flip side, if the price falls further, the immediate support is situated at the $67.5K level, indicating a potential 3% downside.

Moving on to ETH, ETH bears dominated the market over the weekend, pushing the price of ETH down to $3.6K. This level represents immediate support, as seen by previous price reactions in this area. The upcoming days will be crucial to keep a lookout for potential short-term ETH reversals from current support level towards the resistance level at $3.9K, a 8.3% increase. The RSI is currently at 39.53, approaching oversold territory, indicating that a short-term reversal might be imminent. Conversely, resistance is noted at approximately $3.8K. The potential for a short-term bounce exists given the RSI's oversold condition, but monitoring the support level is crucial for confirming this reversal.

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