BTC

ETH

S&P 500 Futures

$89,969.75

$3,100.00

$5,961.00

(+2.29%)

 (+1.10%)

(-0.81%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM 🌳

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October 2024 Market Recap

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • U.S. retail sales display economic resilience; U.S.-China talks emphasize cooperation amid tensions (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • Ethena working on fee-sharing proposal for ENA token; $259B lawsuit against Elon Musk falls flat (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • XRP whales continue to accumulate, currently holding 18% of the supply; stablecoin supply on Ethereum surges post Trump’s election win (More in On-Chain)
  • BTC ATM IV signals reduced market uncertainty; Skew reflects bullish sentiment amid speculation of Fed rate cuts (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC in consolidation phase after recent bullish sentiment; ETH’s RSI at neutral levels with market sentiment being balanced (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% in October, exceeding expectations and signaling strong consumer spending, particularly on vehicles and electronics. Upward revisions to September's sales data (from 0.4% to 0.8%) and rising import prices (up 0.3% after prior declines) reflect economic resilience as the fourth quarter began. Robust spending, driven by stable household finances and low layoffs, bolstered the outlook for growth despite challenges like hurricanes and strikes. Markets have tempered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with odds dropping to 58.4%. Core retail sales dipped slightly, but upward revisions position the economy for continued momentum. Inflation remains moderate but persistent, complicating the Fed's policy decisions amid a robust labor market and resilient consumption trends.

Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized cooperation with U.S. President Joe Biden during their meeting at the APEC summit in Lima, Peru, while signaling readiness to work with Donald Trump's incoming administration to stabilize U.S.-China relations. Xi acknowledged past volatility in bilateral ties but highlighted their relative stability, proposing expanded collaboration and careful management of differences. The leaders reached a notable agreement on maintaining human oversight in nuclear weapon decisions, marking a first in U.S.-China bilateral accords on nuclear issues. Biden highlighted the importance of avoiding conflict in their competitive relationship, even as both nations remain at odds over issues such as Taiwan, technology restrictions, and China's support for Russia. 

U.S. markets tumbled last Friday as concerns over interest rates overshadowed the postelection rally, with the Dow falling 1.63%, the S&P 500 dropping 2.25%, and the Nasdaq losing 3.32%. Samsung surged 6.36% after unveiling a surprise $7.2 billion buyback plan, recovering from a 30% YTD slump, in contrast to SK Hynix's 20% YTD gains. Global attention shifts to the G-20 summit in Rio and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech later today, which could signal policy changes amid yen weakness. Key data this week include Japan's CPI figures on Friday at 07:30 SGT, China's Loan Prime Rate decision on Wednesday at 09:00 SGT.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Ethena foundation working on fee-sharing proposal for ENA token
  • $259B lawsuit against Elon Musk falls flat
  • Senator Lummis says Treasury should convert gold for Bitcoin reserve
  • South Korea investigates Upbit’s KYC violations amid market dominance concerns
  • Starknet will increase TPS 4X and reduce fees 5X within 3 months: CEO

The Ethena Foundation has approved Wintermute's proposal to allocate a portion of Ethena's fee revenue to stakers of ENA, the platform's native token. This decision was confirmed in the governance forum on November 15, with plans to finalize the fee switch parameters by November 30. Wintermute's proposal addresses the disconnect between staked ENA (sENA) holders and the protocol’s growing revenue, aiming to better align token holders with the protocol’s financial success. The proposal also complements Wintermute’s recent move to accept USDe as collateral for spot and derivatives trades, adding to the firm’s list of accepted collateral, which includes BTC, ETH, Solana, and USDC. 

In other news, a high-profile lawsuit accusing Elon Musk of manipulating the price of Dogecoin (DOGE) has officially ended, with investors withdrawing their appeal of the case's dismissal. The lawsuit, filed in 2022, claimed that Musk and Tesla Inc. used Musk’s public influence to fraudulently manipulate DOGE prices, seeking $258B in damages. The case centered around Musk's tweets and media appearances, such as his 2021 "Saturday Night Live" appearance where he referred to Dogecoin as a “hustle”, and his tweet calling it “the future currency of Earth.” However, District Judge Alvin Hellerstein dismissed the case in August, ruling that the investors’ claims lacked a sufficient legal basis. The court found no evidence of insider trading or market manipulation, stating that Musk’s public statements could not reasonably be interpreted as actionable investment advice. The investors dropped their appeal and also withdrew their request for sanctions against Musk’s lawyers, who had been accused of interfering with the appeal by demanding excessive legal fees. The dismissal was formally filed on November 14 and is awaiting final approval. This lawsuit's conclusion marks the end of a legal battle that reflected broader concerns about the influence of high-profile figures like Musk in the cryptocurrency space.

On-Chain

According to an analysis by @santiment, XRP has surged to a three-year high, reaching $1.2679 on Binance, a level not seen since November 11, 2021. This rally is largely driven by significant accumulation from whale and shark wallets holding between 1 million and 100 million tokens. Over the past week, this group has collectively acquired 453.3 million XRP, valued at approximately $526.3 million. In contrast, retail investors holding fewer than 1 million XRP have sold off 75.7 million tokens, worth about $87.9 million, during the same period. 

In another on-chain analysis by CryptoQuant, Following Donald Trump's election victory, there has been a notable surge in stablecoin inflows into cryptocurrency exchanges, indicating increased liquidity and potential buying pressure in the market. Between November 5 and 8, 2024, leading exchanges like Binance and Coinbase experienced a combined influx of approximately $9.3 billion in stablecoins on the Ethereum network. The cryptocurrency market may be experiencing a phase of increased liquidity and institutional engagement, potentially setting the stage for future growth.

Derivatives

  • The funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive.
  • Over the weekend, Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC dipped to 57.40% and increased slightly for ETH to 65.18%.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH rose to 4.88 and 2.76 respectively.
  • The futures market witnessed $1.06B in liquidations over the weekend, with longs representing 56.05%.

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

20.80%

BTC

Binance

Bybit

10.83%

BTC

OKX

Bybit

9.97%

BTC

Binance

OKX

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin's 7-day ATM IV dipped to 58.16, while the 30-day ATM IV declined to 55.76, reflecting decreased market uncertainty. This comes as U.S. economic resilience, highlighted by CPI data meeting expectations, and robust retail sales, bolstered confidence in the US economy's resilience. However, US economic robustness may prompt the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts, maintaining a cautious stance as inflation remains a concern.

The BTC term structure has shifted into backwardation, with speculative traders driving up short-term option demand. 2-day tenors has climbed to 60, despite no obvious upcoming events to justify the move.

BTC’s skew has surged, with the 7-day ATM IV at 5.04 and the 30-day ATM IV at 4.88, signaling strong bullish sentiment among BTC option traders. This optimism may stem from dovish speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, a scenario given a 64% probability on Polymarket. 

Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted a blend of bullish strategies for BTC and ETH. Key BTC trades included the purchase of 1,425x 27-Dec-24 $100K Calls and 1,150x 27-Dec-24 $110K/$120K Call Spreads, alongside a notable sale of 1,150x 27-Dec-24 $80K Puts. Meanwhile, ETH activity featured substantial buying of 22,125x 28-Mar-25 $3.3K/$4.4K Call Spreads and 12,500x 28-Mar-25 $3.8K Calls.

Crypto Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, BTC reflects a consolidation phase in which the market is undecided and is moving up to the resistance level of $92.7K, a 2% increase from the current price level of $90.8K. On the downside, BTC would retreat towards the support level of $87K, should bearish sentiment take over. The RSI level is at 57.8, which is relatively neutral, and supports the trend of BTC being in consolidation. Given that the RSI had spiked higher over the past few days, the current level indicates a cooling-off period from the recent overbought conditions. 

ETH’s 4-hour chart shows signs of retracement near the $3.1K level after the recent bullish behavior around the beginning of November. The resistance level of $3.3K acts as a significant barrier where ETH has previously faced rejections, and the $2.8K zone acts as a notable support area should ETH face downward pressure. The RSI is currently at 49.42, suggesting that there is a lack of strong buying or selling momentum and that the market sentiment is balanced or indecisive at this point.

Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi Ă— Crypto markets

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TRHX Research (Formerly Treehouse Research) 🌳