BTC

ETH

S&P 500 Futures

$100,020.50

$3,885.00

$6,068.00

(-0.69%)

 (+1.88%)

(-0.27%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM 🌳

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November 2024 Market Recap

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • U.S. jobless claims rise as inflation cools; ECB adopts dovish stance amid Eurozone slowdown (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • Grayscale launches LDO and OP trusts; Crypto-friendly French Hill chosen as new chair of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Whale accumulation drive Chainlink past $29; Aave pushes past $300 as Mean Dollar Invested Age declines (More in On-Chain)
  • BTC's IV, term structure reflect reduced short-term volatility (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC hits ATH of $102.6K before retracing to test support level; ETH testing resistance level after breaking past it momentarily (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

U.S. jobless claims rose to 242,000 for the week ending Dec. 7, the highest in two months and above analysts’ forecast of 220,000, indicating a cooling labor market despite remaining historically low. Continuing claims climbed to 1.89 million, while the four-week average rose to 224,250. Meanwhile, producer prices increased by 0.4% in November, driven by a 54.6% surge in egg prices amid an avian flu outbreak, though core inflation indicators suggest disinflation remains on track. With labor market resilience softening—evidenced by rising unemployment claims but steady job growth—and inflation nearing the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time next week to sustain economic momentum. However, potential policy shifts under the incoming administration, such as tariffs and immigration changes, could reintroduce inflationary pressures in 2025.

In other news, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its benchmark deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3%, marking its fourth rate cut since June and signaling a shift toward more accommodative monetary policy amid weakening Eurozone growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted unanimous support for the move, with some policymakers advocating for a steeper 50-basis-point cut. The decision reflects the Eurozone’s struggles with sluggish economic expansion, exacerbated by trade uncertainties tied to Donald Trump’s potential tariff policies. Growth forecasts for 2025 were trimmed to 1.1%, with projections for 2026 and 2027 also downgraded. Inflation, expected to reach 2.1% by 2025, remains a target as policymakers suggest further rate cuts are likely, adopting a meeting-by-meeting approach. Investors expect the ECB to ease rates faster than the Federal Reserve, as the Eurozone’s growth is set to trail the U.S., with traders pricing in five additional quarter-point cuts by September 2025. The ECB’s dovish stance aligns with global central banks like the Swiss National Bank, which also implemented a larger-than-expected rate cut.

U.S. producer prices and jobless claims exceeded expectations, adding to recent inflationary pressures ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of the year on December 19. Markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 falling 0.54%, the Dow down 0.53%, and the Nasdaq declining 0.68%. Adobe dropped 13.69% after issuing a weaker-than-expected annual sales forecast, fueling concerns about competitive disruption from emerging AI startups. In contrast, Broadcom surged 13.66% in after-hours trading following a strong earnings report and optimistic projections for AI chip demand. The Fed’s decision, closely watched for its implications on economic and market stability, is set for release at 03:00 SGT Thursday.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Grayscale launches Lido DAO and Optimism trusts 
  • French Hill chosen as chair of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee
  • USDe becomes the 3rd largest stablecoin, surpassing DAI
  • Chainalysis expands to SOL to include pump.fun coins
  • Eigen Foundation commits 1% of EIGEN to ETH Protocol Guild
  • Avalanche Foundation raises $250M ahead of protocol upgrade

Grayscale Investments has announced the launch of two new investment vehicles: the Grayscale® Lido DAO Trust and the Grayscale® Optimism Trust, providing exposure to the governance tokens of Lido DAO (LDO) and the Optimism protocol (OP). These trusts offer investors the opportunity to gain exposure to Ethereum’s ecosystem, with Lido DAO enhancing Ethereum’s security via liquid staking, and Optimism scaling Ethereum using Optimistic Rollups to reduce congestion and transaction fees. The Lido DAO Trust will focus on LDO, while the Optimism Trust will invest in OP. These trusts are available for subscription by accredited investors and are part of Grayscale’s broader financial and smart contract platform sectors. Grayscale aims to list these products on secondary markets, though success is not guaranteed. 

In other news, French Hill has been chosen as the new chair of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, a key position likely to play a crucial role in shaping future digital asset legislation. Hill, known for his crypto-friendly stance, has chaired the committee's digital asset panel and worked on crypto bills, such as those regulating stablecoins and addressing market structure. His leadership is expected to continue prioritizing crypto-related issues, including concerns over debanking in the industry. Hill's appointment comes after the retirement of the previous committee chair, Patrick McHenry, who was instrumental in advancing crypto legislation. Hill's efforts to address issues like SAB 121, a controversial rule affecting crypto custody, will be a significant focus moving forward.

On-Chain

An on-chain analysis by Santiment showed that Chainlink (LINK) has surged past $29 for the first time in 37 months, driven by rising whale accumulation. Wallets holding 100K+ LINK have added 5.69 million LINK to their collective balances over the past two months, while smaller wallets with less than 100K LINK have collectively sold 5.67 million LINK during the same period. This redistribution from retail holders to large wallets reflects a common trend in crypto markets, where accumulation by large investors often precedes market cap growth, signaling confidence in LINK’s long-term potential.

Another on-chain analysis by Santiment indicated that AAVE has surged past $300 for the first time in over three years, driven by significant activity from key stakeholders moving previously stagnant tokens into circulation. This drop in "Mean Dollar Invested Age" signals a renewed interest and involvement from major players, helping to sustain bullish momentum. The average returns of active AAVE traders are notably high, with 30-day traders seeing +33% and 365-day traders enjoying +109% gains. If large holders slow their movements or take profits, a retracement may occur, highlighting the importance of monitoring whale behavior in the coming days.

Derivatives

  • The funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained flat at 59.78 and 72.38, respectively.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC remained flat at 3.57, while that of ETH rose to 3.41, respectively.
  • The futures market witnessed $321.52M in liquidations in the past day, with longs representing 63.07%.

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

6.80%

BNB

OKX

Bybit

6.30%

BTC

OKX

Binance

6.12%

BNB

Binance

Bybit

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.

Bitcoin's at-the-money IV for 30-day options held steady at 56.65, while the 7-day IV declined to 52.18, reflecting reduced expectations for short-term price fluctuations. As the holiday season approaches, market participants anticipate quieter trading activity, likely dampening volatility further. 

Bitcoin's term structure remains in contango, marked by a notable drop in short-dated IV. Over the past 24 hours, OI data reveals significant call option exercises at the $90K and $100K strike levels as BTC breached these price points, thus explaining the dip in IV at the front end. 

BTC's options skew remains positive with the 7-day and 30-day call-put skew remaining flat at 2.75 and 3.57, respectively. There appears to be consistent demand for upside exposure in both short- and medium-term horizons. 

Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted a session with a mix of bullish and bearish structures. Key BTC trades included the purchase of 1325x 27-Dec-24/3-Jan-25 $110k Call Calendars and 550x 28-Feb-25 $70k Puts. Meanwhile, ETH flows featured the acquisition of 5400x 28-Mar-25 $7.5/$10k Call Spreads and 5000x 20-Dec-24 $4.3K/$4.5K Call Spreads.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC achieved an all-time high of $102.6K, hitting the upper range of the Bollinger Band before retracing back to $99.5K, testing the immediate support level. If BTC were to retrace further, the subsequent support level would be at $94.8K, a 4.7% decline. The RSI is at 51.71, indicating neutral momentum, suggesting that Bitcoin is in a balanced market with no clear bullish or bearish dominance at the moment. Watching the RSI for a shift above 55 or below 50 will provide insights into the next potential move.

Ethereum is currently at $3.8K and appears to be consolidating between the $3.9K Similarly, ETH pushed past the immediate resistance level of $3.9K, hitting the Bollinger Band's upper range, before declining to current levels of $3.8K.  If ETH breaks past the immediate resistance level and sustains its price action, it could target the next resistance zone of $4K. The $3.38K level would be crucial for supporting further selling pressure. The RSI is currently at 53.22, which indicates neutral momentum. It is neither overbought nor oversold, but it shows some bullish momentum after recently crossing over 50 from oversold territory.

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