BTC

ETH

S&P 500 Futures

$97,363.75

$3,416.50

$5,916.25

(-3.44%)

 (-6.46%)

(-0.65%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM 🌳

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November 2024 Market Recap

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • Trump-backed republican bill to prevent government shutdown fails; China holds benchmark interest rate steady following the Fed’s rate cut (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • Aptos Labs undergoes leadership transition; Usual partners with M^0 to enhance stablecoin infrastructure (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • ETH whale purchases 6,000 ETH after the recent price drop; Increased whale transfers among several altcoins over $500M in market cap (More in On-Chain)
  • Over $1B liquidated in the past 24H; BTC 7-day IVs sees aggressive fluctuations (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC has broken down from its ascending channel; ETH tumbles further moving toward key support levels (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

A House Republican bill to fund the U.S. government for three months and suspend the debt ceiling for two years failed on Thursday, with 38 Republicans voting against the measure, along with nearly all Democrats. This proposal, endorsed by President-elect Donald Trump, aimed to avert a government shutdown set to begin late Friday night. Trump and Elon Musk had previously criticized an earlier version of the bill, causing Republicans to scramble for a new plan. The bill included a $110 billion extension for disaster and farm aid, which was a key Democratic demand, but its failure highlights the deep divisions within the Republican Party. Speaker Mike Johnson's next steps remain unclear following the substantial opposition. The bill's failure increases the likelihood of a partial government shutdown.

In other news, China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), decided to keep its benchmark lending rates steady, maintaining the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the five-year LPR at 3.6%. This move comes as China grapples with challenges to stimulate economic growth and stabilize a weakening yuan. The decision follows the U.S. Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate cut and its indication of fewer rate cuts in 2025, signaling a more cautious monetary policy. While China's central bank is focused on easing measures to support the economy, analysts suggest that the Fed's stance will have little direct impact on China's monetary policy but could exert pressure on the yuan. China's leaders have emphasized further monetary easing to address economic challenges.

On December 19, 2024, U.S. stocks ended mixed, with the Dow inching up and snapping a 10-day losing streak—its longest in 50 years—while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged slightly lower. Investors were still cautious after Wednesday’s sharp sell-off sparked by the Federal Reserve’s cautious rate-cut outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a new high for the year, reflecting ongoing uncertainty. Chipmaker Micron plunged 16% on weak guidance, and Lamb Weston tumbled 20% after a disappointing quarter, while Darden Restaurants soared 15% on strong results. Tech giants were mixed, with Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon posting modest gains, while Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Broadcom slipped. Bitcoin hovered around $97,400, and both gold and oil prices declined further. Investors will be closely watching PCE price data due tonight at 21:30 SGT, as Fed Chair Powell said future easing would require fresh progress on inflation. 

DeFi & CeFi

  • Aptos Labs co-founder Mo Shaikh steps down as CEO
  • Usual to use M^0 infrastructure to launch token
  • Bitcoin miners MARA, Hut 8 continue to acquire more BTC for their reserves
  • Sui Foundation names Christian Thompson as its new managing director
  • Team behind HAWK memecoin, tied to 'Hawk Tuah Girl,' sued for alleged securities law violation

Mo Shaikh, co-founder and CEO of Aptos Labs, announced his resignation to "start a new chapter," transitioning leadership to Avery Ching, the firm's CTO and fellow co-founder. Ching will now lead the blockchain company as CEO, focusing on accelerating innovation and product development to strengthen the Aptos ecosystem. Shaikh, who expressed confidence in the team's ability to achieve their vision, highlighted his passion for founding companies. Aptos Labs, the developer of the Layer 1 blockchain Aptos, recently enhanced its advisory board with high-profile additions, including Michael Sonnenshein, former CEO of Grayscale Investments, and Kevin Weil, OpenAI's Chief Product Officer. The leadership change marks a strategic pivot as the firm enters its next growth phase.

In other news, stablecoin issuer Usual has partnered with M^0 to launch UsualM, an extension of M^0’s U.S. Treasury-backed stablecoin infrastructure. This move diversifies Usual's reserves, previously backed by Hashnote, and marks its continued ascent, having reached $1 billion in market cap just four months after launch, making it the seventh-largest stablecoin. M^0, which raised $35 million earlier this year, enables rapid deployment of customizable stablecoin solutions and aims to serve as a foundational layer for decentralized finance. CEO Gregory Di Prisco highlighted that the platform’s on-chain governance, automated yield distribution, and compliance features make it appealing to advanced fintech and dApp developers. This partnership reflects the growing trend of leveraging modular stablecoin frameworks to enhance ecosystem-specific innovation and scalability.

On-Chain

On-chain analysis by Lookonchain identified a smart whale, potentially associated with Longling Capital, that purchased 6,000 ETH following the recent price drop, showcasing its strategic approach to capitalizing on market dips. This whale is adept at timing the market, with a track record of buying ETH at low prices and selling at highs, accumulating a total profit of $83M. Since May 8, 2023, the whale has purchased 75,400 ETH for $180.4M at an average price of $2,392 and sold 50,800 ETH for $172.8M at an average price of $3,401. This activity reflects sophisticated market behavior, leveraging volatility for significant gains while maintaining a substantial position in Ethereum for future opportunities. Such moves can indicate confidence in ETH’s long-term potential and provide insights into market timing for other traders.

On-chain data by Santiment revealed that despite significant crypto market corrections this week, several altcoins over $500M in market cap had seen a surge in whale activity, indicating potential accumulation during the dip. Notable assets include $USUAL, $VIRTUAL, $USD0, $GNO, $FTN, $AAVE, $FDUSD, and $DAI on Polygon and Arbitrum, as well as $FLOKI. These increased whale transactions suggest growing volatility in these tokens, making them key assets to watch for signs of broader market sentiment shifts and possible rebound opportunities.

Derivatives

  • The funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained flat at 60.13 and 74.81 respectively.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH rose to 1.87 and 1.21 respectively.
  • The futures market witnessed $1.03B in liquidations over the past 24 hours with 85.68% representing longs.

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

25.07%

AVAX

OKX

Bybit

20.37%

BNB

OKX

Bybit

15.77%

XRP

OKX

Bybit

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.

Today, BTC’s 7-day ATM IV has seen huge fluctuations following recent heightened volatility, likely reflecting reduced short-term uncertainty as markets are still not stabilized post-FOMC meeting and liquidation events in the past few days. The 30-day IV remained steady, indicating that medium-term volatility expectations were largely unaffected. This divergence suggests that traders are repricing near-term risks while maintaining a neutral stance on the broader market outlook.

Today, BTC's term structure steepened further into contango, with short-term IV decreasing slightly while longer-term IV saw a modest rise. This reflects a reduction in near-term uncertainty following recent events.

Today, BTC's 7-day skew dropped significantly, reflecting increased demand for puts relative to calls in the short term, likely also driven by heightened caution after recent market events. Meanwhile, the 30-day skew remains stable and slightly positive, indicating balanced medium-term sentiment with a mild preference for calls. 

Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted diverse activity across BTC and ETH options. For BTC, key trades included the sale of a 425x 20-Dec-24 $102K Put, the sale of a 300x 27-Dec-24 $90K Put, and the purchase of a 300x 31-Jan-25 $110K/$130K Call Spread. For ETH, notable positions featured the sale of a 16,500x 27-Dec-24 $4K/$4.5K/$4.8K/$5.2K Condor, the purchase of a 4,125x 27-Dec-24 $4.8K/$5.2K Call Spread, and the sale of a 3,000x 20-Dec-24 $3.9K Put. These strategies reflect mixed hedging and directional plays across maturities.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC has broken down from the ascending channel pattern, signaling a potential bearish shift in momentum. The price is currently trading near $96.9K, with the next support level likely to be tested around $93.3K, followed by a more significant support at $87.1K if selling pressure persists. To regain bullish momentum, BTC needs to overcome resistance at $102K, which would also align with reclaiming the channel. The RSI is at 29, indicating oversold conditions, which could suggest a potential short-term rebound, but the broader trend remains under pressure.

ETH has similarly broken below its support level, signaling a continuation of bearish momentum. ETH is now tumbling towards the next key support at $3.2K, with $3.05K acting as a major level of interest if the decline persists. On the upside, resistance is seen at $3.52K, with stronger resistance at $3.89K. The RSI is currently at 22, indicating that ETH is in deeply oversold territory, which could result in a short-term bounce, but the broader trend remains under significant downward pressure.

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TRHX Research (Formerly Treehouse Research) 🌳