BTC

ETH

S&P 500 Futures

$105,832.00

$3,958.50

$6,144.25

(+0.27%)

 (-1.06%)

(+0.18%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM 🌳

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November 2024 Market Recap

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • Trump failed at his attempt to dismiss hush money case; China retail sale growth falls below expectations in November (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • FTX begins creditor distributions with Kraken and BitGo; Ethena launches USDtb (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • ETH whales hold a record high of 57.35% of ETH supply; 9.9% increase in wallets holding at least 100 BTC since bull rally (More in On-Chain)
  • BTC’s ATM IV’s and Skews points towards neutral market sentiment; BTC term structure remains in backwardation (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC tests the upper trendline for a breakout; ETH struggles at $4.1K resistance (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

Donald Trump's attempt to have his conviction in the New York hush money case dismissed on the grounds of presidential immunity was rejected by New York state court Justice Juan Merchan. Trump had argued that the trial was tainted by witness testimony and evidence that should not have been admitted, citing a U.S. Supreme Court decision that granted presidents broad immunity from criminal charges. However, Merchan ruled that Trump had failed to raise the immunity argument in time and that the evidence in question, including testimony from former aide Hope Hicks, was not subject to the Supreme Court’s ruling. Despite Trump’s appeal, Merchan found no substantial error in the evidence, concluding that it would not have changed the overwhelming evidence of guilt. Trump was convicted in May of falsifying business records to conceal a $130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election, making him the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime. Trump's legal team continues to challenge the verdict, with the case now in limbo pending a potential appeal.

In other news, China's retail sales growth in November disappointed expectations, rising just 3%, below the forecast of 4.6%, marking a sharp slowdown from October's 4.8% increase. The data highlighted the ongoing struggles in China's economy, particularly the deepening slump in real estate investment, which fell 10.4% year-over-year from January to November. Despite some signs of improvement in industrial production, which rose by 5.4%, and fixed asset investment showing a slight uptick, the economy continues to face challenges. The government has ramped up stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and property purchase rule relaxations, but weak consumer sentiment persists due to falling home prices and high youth unemployment, which reached 17.6% in October. As Beijing focuses on boosting domestic consumption and addressing local government debt, more detailed policy measures are expected in March.

On December 16, 2024, U.S. stocks ended mixed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% to a new record high, buoyed by an 11% surge in Broadcom (AVGO), while the S&P 500 rose 0.4%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, marking its eighth straight daily decline. Large-cap tech stocks mostly gained, led by Tesla’s 6.1% jump on bullish AI and self-driving projections, and Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all rose, though Nvidia slipped 1.7%. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) dropped 8.3% on news of its impending removal from the Nasdaq 100. Meanwhile, Bitcoin soared to a record high above $107,000 on optimism about the incoming Trump administration’s crypto-friendly stance. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.40%, gold dipped slightly, and oil prices fell nearly 1%. Investors now turn to the Fed’s midweek announcement on Thursday, 19 December, at 03:00 SGT, widely expected to include another quarter-point rate cut. 

DeFi & CeFi

  • FTX customers to get distributions through Kraken and BitGo with bankruptcy plan set to be effective on Jan. 3
  • Ethena Labs launches stablecoin backed by BlackRock’s tokenized fund shares
  • Pudgy Penguins’ PENGU token launches tomorrow with Binance listing and airdrop
  • Riot Platforms buys more Bitcoin, raising holdings to 17,429 BTC
  • NFT collection CyberKongz says it has received a Wells Notice from SEC

FTX customers will begin receiving bankruptcy distributions through Kraken and BitGo as the court-approved reorganization plan becomes effective on January 3, 2025. The initial distributions are expected within 60 days, marking a significant milestone in FTX's two-year recovery effort to return billions in assets. Kraken, known for its role in Mt. Gox creditor distributions, and BitGo, recognized for institutional-grade crypto custody, will facilitate the process, including options for stablecoin payouts. While 98% of creditors are set to recover at least 118% of their claims in cash, some criticism remains over payouts being based on 2022 valuations rather than in-kind cryptocurrency.

In other news, Ethena, a $6 billion DeFi protocol, has launched its new stablecoin USDtb, backed primarily by BlackRock and Securitize's tokenized money market fund BUIDL, to stabilize its yield-generating USDe token during bearish crypto markets. USDtb holds 90% of reserves in BUIDL and enables Ethena to mitigate risks by diverting assets away from derivatives positions when funding rates turn negative. The protocol plans to integrate USDtb as collateral for margin trading on centralized exchanges and has applied for a $1 billion allocation from Sky's Tokenization Gran Prix program. The rollout follows a recent surge in governance token ENA, fueled by a $500,000 purchase from Trump-affiliated World Liberty Financial, reflecting continued investor interest in Ethena’s ecosystem. 

On-Chain

An on-chain analysis by Santiment showed that there are currently 104 whale wallets holding at least 100K Ethereum, collectively controlling 57.35% of the total ETH supply, valued at approximately $333.1B. This marks the highest concentration of ETH held by large stakeholders in the asset's 9-year history. In contrast, mid-tier wallets holding between 100 to 100K ETH have dropped to their lowest share ever at 33.46%, and smaller wallets with under 100 ETH hold a near 4-year low of 9.19%. While a significant portion of Ethereum's supply is now locked in DeFi and staking wallets, the increased concentration among large holders generally signals long-term bullish sentiment. The accumulation of ETH amongst key stakeholders, particularly for a mature asset like Ethereum, suggests strong confidence in its future performance.

An on-chain analysis by Santiment found that since the bull rally for BTC began on October 10th, there has been a net increase of 1,582 wallets holding at least 100 BTC, representing a +9.9% rise in large-holder wallets over this short period. The rapid accumulation of BTC by significant stakeholders reflects growing confidence and demand among high-net-worth investors, often a bullish signal during price discovery phases, contributing to BTC’s recent ATH of $106.5K. Such trends highlight continued capital inflows and a strengthening market foundation as Bitcoin enters uncharted territory.

Derivatives

  • The funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH dropped slightly to 58.65 and 71.30 respectively.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC maintained similar levels at 1.80, while that of ETH rose to 1.11
  • The futures market witnessed $369.39 in liquidations over the past 24 hours with 60.14% representing longs

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

8.33%

AVAX

OKX

Binance

5.16%

XRP

Binance

Bybit

4.64%

BNB

Bybit

OKX

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.

In the past day, BTC’s 7-day ATM IV saw a sharp decline after a brief spike, indicating reduced short-term volatility expectations as market conditions stabilized. Meanwhile, the 30-day ATM IV remained relatively unchanged, reflecting consistent longer-term sentiment. This suggests that the market is transitioning from heightened short-term uncertainty to a more neutral outlook.

In the past day, term structure has shifted back into contango today with shorter-term IV now lower than longer-term IV. This structure indicates that the market is pricing in reduced short-term volatility and expects uncertainty to increase gradually over time. This shift suggests a more stable near-term outlook, with participants focusing on longer-term risks or events.

In the past day, BTC’s 7-day skew slightly declined, indicating a modest shift toward more balanced demand between calls and puts for short-term options. The 30-day skew remained relatively stable and slightly positive, reflecting a continued mild preference for calls over puts in the medium term. This suggests a neutral-to-slightly-optimistic sentiment in the market, with no major shifts in directional bias over the day.

Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted a mix of activity in BTC and ETH options. For BTC, significant trades included the purchase of a 712x 31-Jan-25 $115K/$125K Call Spread, the sale of a 500x 27-Dec-24 $95K/$105K Call Spread, and the sale of a 500x 27-Dec-24 $95K/$105K/$110K/$115K CCondor. For ETH, notable trades featured the sale of a 5000x 31-Jan-25 $5K Call, the purchase of a 3875x 28-Feb-25 $5.2K/$6K Call Spread, and the purchase of a 3250x 28-Mar-25 $7.5K/$10K Call Spread, showing strong interest in medium-to-long-term structures.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC has risen to the top of the upper trendline of the ascending wedge pattern and is currently testing this key psychological level. Price action shows several wicks above the upper boundary of the wedge from last night, suggesting that buyers are probing for a breakout. A decisive close above this trendline would be a bullish signal, potentially invalidating the wedge and paving the way for further upside. Key support remains at $93.2K, while a breakout could lead BTC toward new highs. The RSI is at 70.2, indicating momentum is strong but entering into the overbought territory, which warrants caution. If BTC successfully breaches this trendline, it could confirm bullish continuation; however, rejection may result in a pullback within the wedge's structure.

ETH recently tested the $4.1K resistance level but faced rejection, retracing below the $4K psychological mark. The price continues to follow the ascending trendline as support, maintaining its ascending triangle structure. However, the inability to breach $4.1K could indicate a short-term pullback if buying momentum fades. The RSI remains near 57, showing neutral conditions without overbought or oversold signals. Key levels to monitor include support around $3.8K and critical resistance near $4.1K. A breakout above $4.1K could lead to further gains, while a breakdown below the trendline might trigger a correction toward $3.5K.

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TRHX Research (Formerly Treehouse Research) 🌳