BTC

ETH

S&P 500 Futures

$96,324.00

$3,608.50

$6,050.00

(-1.58%)

 (-4.25%)

(-0.19%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM 🌳

Welcome to the TRHX Pulse newsletter (formerly Treehouse Daily), where TRHX delivers your daily dose of financial news and insights for free! We believe you'll find it both informative and valuable.

Also, in case you have missed it, check out our latest research piece 👇

November 2024 Market Recap

You can also access our research articles on the Bloomberg Terminal with the command “NH TRH < GO >"!

Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • China's economy faces dual pressures; Nvidia antitrust probe fuels tech tensions, while inflation highlights fragility (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • Ripple’s RLUSD receives regulatory approval; Goldman Sachs is potentially moving into BTC and ETH tradings once there is more regulatory clarity (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Cyclical long-term Bitcoin holders down by over 60% this year; Riot platform acquired $68.45M BTC (More in On-Chain)
  • BTC’s skew and backwardation highlight slightly cautious sentiment ahead of CPI (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC and ETH set to test their immediate support levels with overall sentiment being bearish (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

Donald Trump has pledged to expedite regulatory approvals for investments exceeding $1 billion in the U.S., signaling a deregulatory approach aimed at boosting domestic development. Announcing the plan on Truth Social, Trump emphasized easing environmental and other permit processes, though details on implementation remain unclear. This initiative complements his campaign promise to lower corporate tax rates for investors. While developers and clean energy advocates have broadly supported permitting reform to address delays in infrastructure and energy projects, conservationists argue that environmental protections are critical. Critics note that the $1 billion threshold excludes smaller projects, potentially favoring large-scale investments over broader economic inclusivity. Elsewhere in the US, the Biden administration is considering new, stricter sanctions targeting Russia’s oil trade to undermine its war efforts in Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. 

In other news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cautioned that Donald Trump’s proposed sweeping tariffs on key trade partners like Canada, Mexico, and China could undermine recent progress in reducing inflation. While acknowledging the need to address unfair trade practices, Yellen warned that broad tariffs risk inflating costs for households and hurting U.S. competitiveness in certain sectors, potentially reversing gains made after inflation peaked in 2022. She also criticized Trump's suggestions of increased influence over Federal Reserve policy, highlighting the importance of maintaining the institution's independence to uphold market confidence. Additionally, Yellen voiced concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability amid rising sovereign debt and higher interest rates. 

U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, pulling back from a recent post-election rally. The Nasdaq fell 0.25%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, and the Dow declined 0.35%. Boeing surged 4.5% after announcing the resumption of production at two Seattle-area plants following a labor strike. Conversely, Oracle tumbled 6.7% after reporting weaker-than-expected profits despite strong growth in its AI-driven infrastructure segment. Investors are now focused on the upcoming U.S. CPI report, set to release on December 11 at 9:30 PM SGT, which could significantly influence market sentiment and direction.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Ripple’s RLUSD receives final approval from NY State of Financial Services
  • Goldman CEO indicate the potential to engage in BTC and ETH tradings
  • Microsoft shareholders voted down the Bitcoin treasury proposal
  • Magic Eden’s airdrop raises concerns over its wallet’s security
  • USDT has been recognized by Abu Dhabi Global Market Regulatory Authority
  • Crypto.com announced a strategic partnership with Deutsche Bank for corporate banking services

Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin has received final approval from the New York State Department of Financial Services, as confirmed by CEO Brad Garlinghouse. He shared the news on social media, stating that exchange and partner listings would be available soon. Ripple had announced plans for the RLUSD stablecoin back in April, with initial availability on the Ledger and Ethereum blockchains. Testing of the stablecoin began in August, and in October, Ripple secured exchange partnerships with Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, MoonPay, Independent Reserve, CoinMENA, and Bullish. Market makers B2C2 and Keyrock will also support RLUSD's liquidity. The company had hoped for the token's launch by the end of 2024.

In other news, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon indicated that the investment firm could consider engaging in Bitcoin and Ether trading if U.S. regulations change. Speaking at a Reuters Next conference, Solomon explained that the firm's ability to participate in crypto is currently limited by existing regulations, but he sees potential for future involvement if the regulatory environment evolves. He acknowledged growing interest in cryptocurrencies due to expectations of changing regulations under the incoming U.S. administration. Solomon noted that, while bitcoin and ether are seen as speculative assets, the firm is open to reevaluating its position if the regulatory framework shifts. The firm has previously launched a crypto desk in 2021 and tested blockchain technology for institutional assets.

On-Chain

An on-chain analysis by Glassnode showed that Bitcoin's cyclical long-term holders now control less than 50% of the supply, down from over 60% earlier this year, signaling a shift toward mid-to-late cycle dynamics. Historically, short-term holders dominate at cycle peaks, holding 70%-80% of wealth. Spot ETFs have added complexity, with many early ETF buyers classified as long-term holders (6-12 months), peaking at 25% of wealth in August but now down to 16%, reflecting profit-taking. Holders from the 1 to 2 and 2 to 3-year cohorts accumulated during the 2022 bear market are also thinning, signaling profit realization by seasoned investors. The 3 to 5-year cohort shows early signs of distribution but no mass selling at current prices. Short-term holders now control approximately 50%, suggesting we are in the mid-to-late cycle, with potential for further growth before the cycle peaks, which typically sees short-term holders holding 80% of wealth.

On-chain data by Lookonchain revealed that Riot Platforms has acquired 705 BTC, valued at approximately $68.45M. This comes shortly after Riot announced plans on December 9 for a private offering of $500M in convertible senior notes. The funds raised are intended primarily for Bitcoin acquisitions and general corporate purposes, highlighting Riot's aggressive strategy to increase its holdings. Riot showed its commitment to leveraging market opportunities and signals confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential, likely adding bullish sentiment to the market.

Derivatives

  • The funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained flat at 59.73 and 72.98, respectively.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH tumbled to 2.65 and 1.76, respectively.
  • The futures market witnessed $628.69M in liquidations in the past day, with longs representing 77.41%.

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

21.88%

AVAX

OKX

Binance

17.74%

XRP

OKX

Bybit

16.43%

DOGE

OKX

Bybit

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.

BTC’s at-the-money IV for both 30-day and 7-day IVs remained flat at 56.80 and 56.10. BTC’s IV suggests that traders are not anticipating significant market volatility following the release of the US CPI data, reflecting a subdued outlook for major price swings in the near term.

BTC's options term structure remains in backwardation, indicating a preference for near-term contracts over longer-dated ones. Although some investors are positioning with options ahead of the upcoming CPI data release, overall market activity suggests limited anticipation of a significant impact from the event.

BTC's options skew reflects weakening bullish sentiment, as the 7-day call-put skew has shifted into negative territory at -1.68, and the 30-day skew dropped to 2.65. The decline in skew coincides with BTC spot prices falling to $96K, leading investors to anticipate stronger resistance to further price increases.

Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted a session with a mix of bullish and bearish structures. Key BTC trades included the purchase of 775x 28-Mar-25 $150k Calls and 575x 28-Feb-25 $130k Calls. Meanwhile, ETH saw notable activity with 6500x 28-Mar-25 $5k Calls sold and 4175x 27-Dec-24 $4K/$4.3K Custom Spreads bought.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC is currently at $96.2K and set to test the immediate support level of $94.8K. This level has held so far and if BTC maintains above it, the price could consolidate or reverse towards the resistance level of $99.3K. The widening of the Bollinger Bands indicates increased volatility while the price being in the lower boundary and the RSI level declining to 41.17 suggests that bearish sentiment is in play.

Ethereum is currently testing the $3.3K support, with the RSI at 32.53, indicating bearish momentum and oversold conditions. The Bollinger Bands suggest increased volatility, and the price is near the lower band, which may act as support. If the current price of $3.6K holds above the support level, Ethereum could rebound and retest the $4K resistance. 

Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets

By TRHX Research

Daily Readings

TradFi

Crypto

Deal Flow

Yours sincerely,
TRHX Research (Formerly Treehouse Research) 🌳