BTC

ETH

S&P 500 Futures

$75,351.00

$2,731.75

$5,952.25

(+5.67%)

 (+9.61%)

(+1.87%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM 🌳

Welcome to the TRHX Pulse newsletter (formerly Treehouse Daily), where TRHX delivers your daily dose of financial news and insights for free! We believe you'll find it both informative and valuable.

Also, in case you have missed it, check out our latest research piece 👇

October 2024 Market Recap

You can also access our research articles on the Bloomberg Terminal with the command “NH TRH < GO >"!

Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • Kamala Harris acknowledges her defeat while Donald Trump receives congratulations from world leaders and tech company executives (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF surges post-Trump win; Senator Lummis pushes U.S. Bitcoin reserve (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Pump.fun hits $30.5M record; $9.3B stablecoin inflow post-election (More in On-Chain)
  • BTC’s IV drops post-election; ETH positive skew signals rising optimism in altcoin market (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC broke past the resistance level to create a new all-time high; ETH surged past the resistance level as RSI reached overbought conditions (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

In a concession speech at Howard University, Vice President Kamala Harris acknowledged her defeat to President-elect Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, urging supporters to accept the results while emphasizing the importance of continuing the fight for the ideals she championed during her campaign. Harris congratulated Trump on his victory and committed to aiding in a peaceful transition of power. Despite the loss, she stated, "The light of America’s promise will always burn bright as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting." The election saw Trump reclaim key swing states and retake control of the Senate, while the House results remain undecided. Harris's campaign, marked by her historic candidacy as the first woman vice president, faced challenges amidst voter dissatisfaction with the current administration, particularly concerning inflation and immigration issues.

Following the election result, China has officially congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory, marking a notable moment in U.S.-China relations as the country prepares for a new phase under his administration. A spokesperson from China’s Foreign Ministry expressed respect for the American people's choice and conveyed their congratulations to Trump. Reports indicate that Trump spoke with Chinese leader Xi Jinping following the election, where Xi also congratulated him. 

Leaders from major tech companies, including Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, and Sam Altman, also congratulated Trump on his victory, expressing eagerness to collaborate with his administration. These messages reflect the tech industry's significant interest in the implications of Trump's presidency for business and innovation, especially in sectors like artificial intelligence and technology manufacturing.

Lastly, on November 6, 2024, U.S. stocks surged to record highs after Donald Trump won the presidential election, with investors optimistic about potential regulatory changes and business-friendly policies. The Dow soared 3.6%, adding over 1,500 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 2.5% and 3%, respectively. Tesla led tech gainers, jumping 15%, while Nvidia and Amazon each added about 4%. Banking stocks rallied, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs up over 10%, on expectations for relaxed regulations. Discover Financial Services soared 20.2%, boosted by merger optimism with Capital One, which rose 15%. Among decliners, Super Micro Computer dropped 18.1% over financial reporting concerns, and solar stocks fell, with Enphase down 16.8% as Trump’s victory cast doubt on renewable energy policies. Treasury yields increased to 4.44%, while gold fell nearly 3% to $2,670 as the dollar strengthened. Besides the Fed Interest rate decision on Friday, 03:00 SGT, Chinese officials will potentially discuss fiscal stimulus from the NPC Standing Committee meeting later this week.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Bitcoin hits a new all-time high above 76K
  • Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF saw notable increase in trading volume
  • Senator Cynthia Lummis reaffirmed plans for National BTC reserve
  • JPMorgan Renames Blockchain Platform from Onyx to Kinexys
  • Polymarket Projects a GOP House

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) saw a remarkable $1.1 billion in trading volume within minutes of market opening following Donald Trump's Nov. 5 election victory. This surge suggests heightened market optimism around crypto assets under Trump's anticipated second term, given his supportive stance on digital currencies. Analysts, including Fadi Aboualfa from Copper.co, project Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, driven by anticipated favorable policies. Trump’s win marks a shift from the Biden administration’s stringent crypto regulations, which had seen over 100 enforcement actions against the industry. 

In other news, following Donald Trump's electoral victory, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis reaffirmed plans for a national Bitcoin reserve, highlighting the Republican Party’s pro-crypto stance as it prepares for a likely Senate majority. In a post-election statement, Lummis committed to advancing legislation for the U.S. government to acquire and retain a strategic Bitcoin reserve, building on Trump’s earlier proposal to maintain any seized Bitcoin assets. Her July “Bitcoin Act” aims for the U.S. to purchase 1 million BTC, equating to roughly 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with a long-term holding goal of at least 20 years. The Republican Party’s success, attributed partly to its crypto-friendly platform, has fueled optimism within the crypto community, with Bitcoin’s price spiking to over $76,000 post-election. Industry leaders, including Y Combinator's Paul Graham, suggest Democrats' losses may reflect voter discontent with their regulatory stance on crypto, which some see as alienating the digital asset community.

On-Chain

Moving on to on-chain analysis. Pump.fun set a new monthly revenue record in October with $30.5 million—a 111% increase from September and surpassing its prior high of $28.64 million in July. This surge marks a reversal after two consecutive months of revenue decline. The spike is largely attributed to a dual trend: the viral success of certain memecoins and an emerging “AI meta,” where autonomous AI agents on social platforms seemingly endorsed specific tokens. The GOAT token, for instance, peaked at a $920 million market cap following endorsements from AI account @truth_terminal, becoming the most highly valued token launched on Pump.fun to date. Additionally, other AI-linked tokens, such as GNON and fartcoin, reached peak market caps in the eight-figure range. 

In another analysis by CryptoQuant, a remarkable $9.3 billion inflow of ERC-20 stablecoins into major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase occurred immediately following the U.S. presidential election results. Binance received the lion’s share with $4.3 billion, while Coinbase saw inflows of $3.4 billion, with the remainder directed to smaller exchanges. This is the second-largest influx of ERC-20 stablecoins recorded, signaling potentially significant buying power now available on these platforms. Historically, substantial stablecoin inflows, such as those observed between September 2020 and February 2021, have aligned with major market rallies.

Derivatives

  • Funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH plummeted to 55.32% and 62.80% respectively.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC fell to 2.93 while ETH rebounded sharply from the negative ranges to 2.92.
  • The futures market witnessed $608.57M in liquidations in the last 24 hours, with shorts representing 69.52%.

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

14.36%

XRP

Binance

OKX

12.49%

BNB

Binance

OKX

6.90%

BNB

Bybit

OKX

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.

Bitcoin's 7-day at-the-money IV dropped to 52.71, with the 30-day IV also decreasing to 54.30. This sharp decline in IV suggests that a significant number of option buyers exercised their options, as many moved in the money during this period, thereby reducing IV. The pattern suggests that a majority of investors were likely positioning around the U.S. election, viewing it as a major volatility event. With the election passing, traders seem to have unwound these positions, contributing to the observed drop in implied volatility.

Bitcoin's options term structure has shifted back to contango, with implied IV decreasing across the curve, particularly on the front end. This sharp decline in IV from the previous day suggests that option buyers are now less focused on potential volatility spikes surrounding the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. 

Bitcoin’s 7-day and 30-day call-put skews remain positive at 2.35 and 2.93, respectively, yet these figures are lower than levels observed prior to Trump’s election. This decline suggests that option buyers are seeing a reduced upside potential in purchasing BTC call options, reflecting a tempered bullish outlook.

ETH’s options skew has shifted sharply positive, with the 7-day skew at 4.81 and the 30-day skew at 2.92—a notable reversal from pre-election levels, where ETH skews remained consistently negative. The reversal suggests growing market optimism toward ETH, indicating that traders see more upside potential in Ethereum and possibly in the broader altcoin markets.

Lastly, @Paradigm top structures highlighted a mix of instruments for BTC and bearish trades for ETH. Key BTC trades saw the sale of 1720x 15-Nov-24 $64K Puts and the purchase of 1000x 28-Mar-25 $60K/$120K Bear Risk Reversals, suggesting a mixed sentiment with downside hedges and potential upside interest. In ETH, significant activity included the acquisition of 10,250x 28-Mar-25 $3K/$4K Call Spreads and 8,125x 27-Dec-24 $3.2K/$3.6K Call Spreads, emphasizing a structured approach for higher strike exposure as year-end and quarterly expirations approach.

Crypto Technical Analysis

The price of BTC surged to a new all-time high of $76K, breaking through previous resistance levels, as news of Trump winning the election was released. Currently, BTC’s price hovers around $75K, with the immediate support level around $72.6K, which was previously the resistance level. BTC’s price is near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong upward trend, but it also suggests a potential retracement if the price moves too far from the average. The RSI is currently at 74.34, in overbought territory, suggesting that the price might face some resistance or consolidation as buying pressure peaks. Traders should monitor this current bullish momentum and consider that consolidation or pullback could occur if the RSI and Bollinger Bands suggest the rally may temporarily pause.

Similarly, the price of ETH surged past its resistance level as the election results of Trump’s win were revealed. It is currently trading near $2.8K and testing the next resistance level of $2.86K. The immediate support lies at $2.75K, followed by stronger support around $2.5K if a deeper pullback occurs. The price is riding the upper Bollinger Band, showing strong momentum. However, this also suggests that a retracement or sideways movement could occur if the price struggles to maintain above the upper band. The RSI remains extremely high at 82.76, reflecting overbought conditions. This level suggests that the asset may be due for a correction or consolidation phase soon, as the buying pressure might be unsustainable at this pace. Traders should monitor these indicators for the sustainability of the bullish momentum and a possible near-term pullback or consolidation.

Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets

By TRHX Research

Daily Readings

TradFi

Crypto

Deal Flow

Yours sincerely,
TRHX Research (Formerly Treehouse Research) 🌳