BTC

ETH

S&P 500 Futures

$95,764.00

$3,695.25

$6,066.00

(-0.07%)

 (+1.61%)

(+0.08%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM 🌳

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November 2024 Market Recap

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • South Korea President to withdraw martial law order; China retaliates against US chip restrictions (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • Grayscale files for spot Solana ETF; Former Celsius CEO plead guilty to two charges (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Institutional investors show strong BTC accumulation; Market stabilizes near $99K as speculative activity cools (More in On-Chain)
  • Bitcoin's term structure remains stable with minimal variance; call-put skew reflects short-term bearish sentiment (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC moves slightly upwards following a day of sideway movements; ETH experience a fake-out under the channel’s lower boundary (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol abruptly reversed his declaration of martial law, a decision that had ignited fierce domestic and international criticism. The martial law decree, announced late Tuesday, was aimed at quelling “anti-state forces” and opposition plotting rebellion. However, it faced unanimous rejection by South Korea’s national assembly and was widely condemned across the political spectrum, including by members of Yoon’s own conservative People Power Party. Yoon announced the withdrawal early Wednesday, citing the assembly’s demands, after a night of political turmoil and public outcry. The martial law order, the first since South Korea’s democratization in 1987, would have banned political activities and demonstrations while deploying military forces. It followed escalating tensions between Yoon and the opposition-controlled assembly, which recently cut significant funding from his proposed 2025 budget and accused him of authoritarian tendencies. Internationally, the decree alarmed key allies, including the US. Meanwhile, domestic opposition leaders branded the move treasonous, with some calling for Yoon’s resignation or impeachment. Within Yoon's party, calls grew for the dismissal of Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, who had advocated for martial law. The failed gambit has left Yoon’s political authority in jeopardy, with approval ratings already at record lows amidst economic challenges and rising public discontent. South Korean markets reacted sharply, with the Kospi stock index declining and the won briefly strengthening after the martial law withdrawal. 

In other news, China has escalated its economic retaliation against US export controls by banning shipments of several critical minerals and metals, including gallium and germanium, essential for semiconductor and military applications. This move comes immediately after the US unveiled new restrictions aimed at hampering China’s development of advanced artificial intelligence and semiconductor capabilities. The ministry justified the move by accusing the US of "weaponizing trade and technology" under the guise of national security. It also imposed stricter controls on graphite exports and urged Chinese industries to reduce reliance on US chips. Meanwhile, Japan and other allies may benefit as companies diversify supply chains to reduce reliance on China. China’s response also targets high-profile companies, including Wingtech, a major supplier for Apple and Samsung, adding complexity for Chinese firms navigating international business and domestic policy priorities. 

On Tuesday, the US stock market data showed mixed performances after job openings rose more than expected in October. The S&P 500 rose 0.05% after a volatile session, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.4%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.17% but remained within 1% of its record high. Large-cap tech stocks supported the rally, with Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms posting gains. Tesla fell 1.6% after a judge blocked CEO Elon Musk's $50B compensation package. AT&T gained 4.6% on a new strategic plan, and Palantir rose 6.9% following U.S. government approval for its cloud computing products. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.23% from 4.19%, reflecting adjustments in interest rate expectations ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech Wednesday and the November jobs report on Friday. These events will likely offer critical insights into the Fed's monetary policy direction as investors await Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate data on December 6 at 21:30 SGT.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Grayscale files for spot Solana ETF
  • Former Celsius CEO, Alex Mashinsky, to plead guilty to two charges in plea deal
  • Tezos launches world’s first Uranium marketplace on blockchain
  • Crypto payment firm Dtcpay shifts to a stablecoin-only payments model
  • Yuga Labs acquires Tokenproof tech team for NFT R&D

Grayscale Investments has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF), under the ticker GSOL. If approved, the ETF would be a conversion of the existing Grayscale Solana Trust, similar to the way Grayscale transitioned its Bitcoin and Ether trusts into ETFs. The trust currently holds approximately $134.2M in assets, representing about 0.1% of all Solana in circulation. Coinbase Custody will serve as the custodian, while BNY Mellon Asset Servicing will handle administration and transfer agent duties. Grayscale’s move places it among several firms vying for approval of a spot Solana ETF, including 21Shares, Canary Capital, VanEck, and Bitwise, with Franklin Templeton also considering a similar launch. Grayscale must also file an S-1 registration statement to allow GSOL to be listed on a public exchange.

Elsewhere, Former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky pleaded guilty to commodities fraud and a scheme to manipulate the price of Celsius’ native token, charges that could lead to a prison sentence of up to 20 years. Mashinsky, arrested in 2023, faced allegations of defrauding customers and misrepresenting Celsius' profitability, as detailed in a Southern District of New York complaint. Celsius, a now-bankrupt crypto lending platform, allowed users to earn interest and take loans but collapsed in 2022, with funds later repurposed to establish the bitcoin mining firm Ionic Digital. Mashinsky's actions also prompted lawsuits from the SEC for fraudulent and unregistered crypto sales and token manipulation.

On-Chain

According to on-chain analyst burakkesmeci on CryptoQuant, institutional investors have demonstrated strong accumulation activity, with two significant Bitcoin outflows from Coinbase totaling 19,487 BTC. These transactions occurred at an average price of $96,043 per BTC, representing approximately $1.87 billion in value. BTC’s accumulation highlights the continued appetite of U.S. investors to capitalize on minor price dips. With institutional demand accelerating, supported by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and retail interest expected to follow, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to challenge the $100,000 level in the near term.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $99.4K before stabilizing within a range of $92K to $98K over the past week. Daily realized profits sent to exchanges have significantly declined to $277 million per day, a 42% drop from the peak of $481 million on November 16. This sharp reduction in profit-taking activity indicates a shift toward a consolidation phase, reflecting a cooling of speculative activity as the market steadies after its recent surge.

Derivatives

  • The funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained flat at 55.16 and 71.15, respectively.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH fell to 3.57 and 4.04, respectively.
  • The futures market witnessed $621.66M in liquidations in the past day, with longs representing 62.70%.

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

37.79%

BNB

Binance

OKX

29.38%

DOGE

Bybit

OKX

29.21%

SOL

Binance

Bybit

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.

BTC’s at-the-money IV for 30-day contracts remains steady at 53.50, while the 7-day IV is slightly lower at 50.34. Meanwhile, U.S. job openings rose to 7.74 million in October, up from a revised 7.37 million in September, indicating stabilization in labor demand. This steady macroeconomic data may contribute to market perceptions of Bitcoin stabilization.

BTC's term structure remains in contango, characterized by minimal variances across the curve. Longer-dated contracts are priced slightly higher, signaling limited near-term volatility expectations and a relatively neutral market outlook.

On the other hand, Bitcoin's call-put skew has diverged further, with the 7-day skew dropping into negative territory at -0.07, indicating increased bearish sentiment for the immediate week. Meanwhile, the 30-day skew has dipped to 3.57, reflecting expectations of price stabilization by month-end. Traders may anticipate short-term downside momentum but foresee a potential reversal and normalization in the medium term.

Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted a session consisting of call options being the top instrument traded. Key BTC trades included the sale of 975x 6-Dec-24 $110K/$108K Call Calendar spreads and the purchase of 450x 27-Dec-24 $100K/$105K Call Calendar spreads. In ETH, activity centered on the sale of 3500x 13-Dec-24 $3550 Calls and the sale of 2000x 6-Dec-24 $3550 Calls.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC traded mostly sideways in the past 24 hours, with a slight uptick as Asia markets opened. Currently, the crypto major remains within the previously identified ranges. As such, our prior analysis still holds, with the $99K resistance level acting as the main barrier upwards, and $95K serving as immediate support, as it intersects with the horizontal support, lower trendline, and the SMAs.

ETH has recently experienced a brief dip below the lower boundary of its ascending channel, coinciding with political developments in South Korea. However, this movement was short-lived, and the price has since rebounded, currently resting just below the channel's midpoint. Consequently, the ascending channel remains a significant technical indicator, with immediate support at approximately $3.65K (the lower boundary) and immediate resistance near $3.9K (the upper boundary).

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TRHX Research (Formerly Treehouse Research) 🌳