BTC

ETH

S&P Futures 500

$30,037.58

$1,910.47

$4,585.50

(-0.43%)

 (-0.07%)

(+0.77%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM Treehouser 🌳

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • U.S. retail sales and industrial output disappoint; China's consumption boost (more in Macro & TradFi)
  • Uniswap releases DEX aggregator protocol, UniswapX; ARKM token debuts at $0.75 after Binance Launchpad (more in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Long-term Bitcoin holders remain resilient as 29.1% of the supply remains untouched for over 5 years (more in On-Chain)
  • BTC and ETH's volatility dropped amidst sideways trading; bullish BTC trades observed (more in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC breaks channel lower bound and bounces back from 200-day SMA; ETH's rising channel demonstrates robust support for 7th time (more in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

U.S. retail sales saw a marginal rise of 0.2% in June, falling short of expectations and displaying a downward trend from the 0.5% increase observed in May. A surprising 0.5% contraction in industrial production was also registered, as manufacturing output declined to -0.3%. These figures suggest that the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate hike policy might be initiating a deceleration of the U.S. economy. As per the CME FedWatch Tool, the deceleration is inevitable, with a 98% probability of another interest rate increase in the upcoming week.

China has initiated a plan to boost domestic consumption, aiming to reverse a slowing economic trend exacerbated by weaker Q2 growth, a cooling retail sector, and rising youth unemployment. The government-backed strategy encourages enhanced consumer spending on home goods, promotes home refurbishment efforts, and recommends increased purchase credit access. Despite the comprehensive nature of this plan, industry experts view these measures as incremental steps, highlighting the need for more impactful initiatives in sectors such as property and infrastructure. Concerns are increasing as banks, including Citigroup, decreased their 2023 growth forecasts for China, emphasizing the need for robust and strategic actions to stabilize the economy.

During Tuesday's trading session, the S&P 500 rose by 0.71%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.06%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.76%. Charles Schwab's shares rose by 12.57% after surpassing earnings estimates and projecting year-end growth despite a 7% deposit decline. Concurrently, Microsoft's stock appreciated by 3.98% after announcing their high-cost AI product, Microsoft 365 Copilot, developed with OpenAI technology and compatible with Office 365 software.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Uniswap unveils UniswapX, an aggregation protocol for better liquidity sourcing
  • Arkham's token (ARKM) launches at $0.75, with the Arkham Intel Exchange now live
  • Chainlink's Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) is now operational
  • OKX to list Lido Staked Ether ($stETH)
  • Liquid staking protocol StakeWise releases V3 on the Goerli testnet
  • Layer2 network Linea opens Mainnet Alpha to users

Uniswap Labs has launched UniswapX, an aggregation protocol that offers protection against MEV and gas-free swaps, with "fillers" factoring gas fees into their quotes. In addition, there are plans to enable cross-chain trading later this year. The protocol's UNI token has also seen a 2% increase in the past 24 hours.

On the whole, UniswapX's introduction addresses the growing need for specialized third parties in the decentralized exchange space due to the fragmentation of liquidity across DeFi. DeFi enthusiasts also note similarities between UniswapX and projects like CoW Swap, with CoW Swap's batching design also providing better pricing and MEV resistance.

In other news, Arkham Intelligence's native token ARKM debuted at $0.75 on the market after being sold for $0.05 on Binance Launchpad. Users locked up $2.4 billion in the launchpad to increase their chances of receiving the total allocation. Recently, the token had a market cap of $113 million, with 150 million tokens in circulation and another 850 million tokens unlocked over an eight-year vesting schedule. Despite raising over $10 million in equity rounds, the token's launch faced criticism regarding privacy breaches and a botched affiliate campaign.

On-Chain

According to an analysis by @CalebFranzen, Bitcoin investors' resilience is evident in the on-chain data, as 29.1% (5.65M) of the total Bitcoin supply has remained untouched for over five years. This statistic is remarkable, considering the significant price fluctuations over this period. Holders exhibited remarkable restraint over the intense volatility surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the steep -77.5% drop over the past 12 months and subsequent recoveries. Instead of selling their Bitcoin to cut losses or secure substantial gains, they held steadfastly onto their positions. By holding onto Bitcoin despite the losses, the investors demonstrate a firm conviction among long-term holders in the digital asset's value.

Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder cohort is driving the inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges, as more than 88% of the Bitcoin supply is now in a profitable position. Data from @glassnode reveals that short-term holders account for 31.1K out of 49.6K BTC sent to exchanges over the past weeks. However, investors are unwilling to part with their Bitcoin holdings on a broader scale. This trend resembles periods in the past, such as 2016 and 2019-2020, characterized by choppy market conditions and a strong inclination among investors to retain their supply.

Crypto Derivatives

  • Funding rates remains positive for both BTC and ETH
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) fell to 42.68% and 42.92% for BTC and ETH respectively
  • 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH is at 1.70% and 0.38% respectively
  • The futures market witnessed $83M worth of liquidations on Monday with longs representing 71% of the total

Top 3 CEX USDT perp funding rate arbitrage based on the last 24-hour lookback:

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

18.48%

DOGE

dYdX

Bybit

11.68%

BNB

Bybit

OKX

11.61%

BTC

Bybit

dYdX

Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, DOGE vs USDT perps 

2) CEX observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & DYDX

@CexyArbBot allows you to customize CEX, 100+ pairs & lookback periods combo


BTC and ETH have continued to trade sideways without any notable macro events or catalysts impacting the market this week. The implied volatility (IV) for BTC and ETH has continued to decline and currently sits below 40%, lower than the usual volatility observed in the crypto markets.

Meanwhile, the term structure for both BTC and ETH remains unchanged and in contango, except for the front end of the curve, which has experienced a slight decrease in IV.

The skews (C-P) for BTC and ETH have remained relatively unchanged. BTC calls are trading at a premium, indicating a call skew, while ETH puts are trading at a premium, reflecting contrasting market sentiments between the two assets.

@tradeparadigm observed significant bullish sentiment in BTC today, with notable buying activity in the BTC Dec Call side. The skews for Dec and Mar BTC options favor calls, with a 4% and 5% premium, respectively. Key trades included the purchase of 840x 29-Dec-23 $34K/$45K Call Spread. Additionally, there was a single trade involving a 500x BTC Call Spread roll down, with the purchase of a 29-Dec-23 $40K/$50K Call Spread and the sale of a 29-Mar-24 $50K/$65K Call Spread.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC's price broke below the channel's lower boundary yesterday, but it quickly found support at the lower Bollinger Band and the 200-day SMA line, despite a minor fake out to the downside. Currently, BTC is attempting to re-enter the channel range after a pullback. The key focus as we advance is establishing strong support within the lower channel range. Failure to do so would leave BTC without clear support, except for the trendline formed by the higher lows on the daily timeframe, which suggests a potential downside of around 10% with a range of $27.2K - $27.6K.

ETH's lower channel bound was respected for the seventh time, aligning with the drop observed in BTC. As long as this support level remains intact, there is a high probability of ETH surpassing the 50-day and 100-day SMA, indicating a bullish upward movement. Consequently, ETH will oscillate within the channel range, with a potential upward trajectory towards the upper boundary around $2.03K in the near term.

Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets

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Treehouse Research 🌳