BTC

ETH

S&P Futures 500

$28,657.00

$1,564.75

$4,294.25

(+0.90%)

 (-0.11%)

(-1.18%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)


GM Treehouser 🌳

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • Powell signals an unchanged interest rate in the next meeting; The labor market exhibits strength with unemployment claims reaching a nine-month low (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • SEC drops charges against Ripple CEO and Chairman; Hamas crypto funding likely “overstated” (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Uniswap sees continued FUD with its introduction of fees; IOSG venture found to have withdrawn UNI and 1INCH from Binance (More in On-Chain)
  • BTC's IV dips; Powell impacts predictability; Significant BTC calls, ETH bear options acquired (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC exhibits bullish patterns near $28.6K; ETH showcases bearish tendencies around $1.56K (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated, in his speech yesterday, that the central bank is leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting while remaining open to a possible rate hike if signs of resilient economic growth emerge. These comments align with market expectations for the Fed to skip a rate increase for the next meeting. Powell also mentioned that the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields might reduce the need for further rate hikes, highlighting the significance of financial conditions in shaping the rate outlook. Powell emphasized that the committee is proceeding cautiously given uncertainties and risks, basing future policy decisions on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and risk assessments.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a nine-month low, indicating strong job growth in October, as the labor market remains tight. The drop in initial jobless claims suggests ongoing economic momentum, supported by solid retail sales and factory production in September. This, along with other upbeat economic data, is strengthening expectations that the Fed could maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. However, the housing market remains weak due to surging mortgage rates and tight supply, negatively impacting affordability for many first-time buyers.

Many U.S. stocks concluded with significant losses on Thursday, with DJIA falling by 0.75%, the S&P 500 by 0.85%, and NASDAQ by 0.96%. The Cboe Volatility index surged to its highest close since March, driven by a drop in Tesla shares after disappointing results and surging Treasury yields. The rate-sensitive real estate sector was the worst-performing S&P 500 sector. In addition, Netflix shares rose 16.1% after announcing price hikes, and American Airlines shares increased following upbeat quarterly results. While the labor market showed strength despite multiple rate hikes by the central bank, market concerns about extended rate hikes have continued to impact the day's performance.

DeFi & CeFi

  • SEC drops charges against Ripple CEO Garlinghouse and Chairman Larsen
  • Hamas crypto funding likely “overstated”
  • Gemini, Genesis, DCG sued by New York AG for allegedly defrauding investors of $1B
  • Coinbase picks Ireland for EU hub With MiCA law set to open European market
  • Pantera, Susquehanna and HashKey back DEX SynFutures with $22M funding
  • U.S. Treasury seeks to name crypto mixers as 'money laundering concern'

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has dropped charges against Ripple's CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Executive Chairman Chris Larsen related to aiding and abetting the violation of federal securities laws through XRP transactions. This cancels the scheduled trial for next year, signaling a victory for Ripple in the long-standing legal battle with the SEC. The charges were voluntarily dismissed with prejudice, however the SEC will continue in its case against Ripple's institutional sales of XRP. Ripple's price experienced a 4.1% jump to $0.51 following this development with the company noting that a significant portion of its business now occurs outside the United States.

Chainalysis, a blockchain forensics company, has contested the accuracy of reports claiming that huge amounts of cryptocurrency were funneled into Palestinian operations in Israel. They identified inflated metrics and flawed analyses in the Wall Street Journal’s recent report, which partly drew on data from competitor Elliptic, of about $130M in terrorism financing involving Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas. Chainalysis explained that while concerns about cryptocurrency's role in terrorism financing are valid, the reported figures may not represent the true extent and the transparency of blockchains impedes covert terrorism financing. The firm is currently working on producing more accurate estimates.

On-Chain

Following Uniswap’s introduction of fees to various markets, @santimentfeed discovered that UNI token holders are generally dissatisfied with this development and have consequently been selling their tokens, contributing to significant FUD around the platform. More specifically, the number of trading addresses and transaction activities has seen a substantial spike since the announcement, accompanied by a consistent drop in token prices of over 5%. Investors should maintain vigilance in monitoring market sentiments and trading activities on Uniswap. Given its market-leading position, Uniswap can significantly influence the overall sentiment and development of the DeFi landscape.

Concurrently, certain institutional investors may interpret this as a favorable indicator for the DEX's long-term viability and seek to utilize this price decline to expand their holdings. Recently, @lookonchain discovered a wallet, labeled as IOSG Ventures by Nansen, which has withdrawn $1.37M worth of UNI tokens, along with $977K worth of 1INCH, from Binance. This development is generally seen as a bullish sign for the UNI token due to the reduced selling pressure on centralized exchanges. Furthermore, this movement may also signal the fund's optimistic outlook regarding the broader DeFi landscape, as they potentially intend to employ these tokens in productive capacities across various DeFi protocols.

Crypto Derivatives

  • Funding rates remained negative for BTC and positive for ETH.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH slightly dipped, now at 39.11% and 34.02%, respectively.
  • 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC remains positive at 2.49% while ETH sits at -1.76%.
  • The futures market witnessed $65.53M worth of liquidations, with longs representing 51.82% of the total.

Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

22.27%

SOL

dYdX

Bybit

11.97%

DOGE

dYdX

OKX

10.37%

ETH

Bybit

Binance

Source: @CexyArbBot Telegram Bot

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.


In the recent 24-hour analysis, BTC's Implied Volatility (IV) has dipped further. The 7-day IV now is at 31.38% while the 30-day IV sits at 34.09%, possibly impacted by Jerome Powell signaling that a November hike is unlikely, which provides a degree of certainty to the near term market movements.

With regards to the term structures, BTC and ETH continue to underscore a contango structure, with minimal changes on the curve over the last 24 hours.

Diving into the skew dynamics, the 30-day and 7-day 25-delta (C-P) skews, the 30-day skew has risen to 2.49%, while the 7-day skew slightly decreased to 3.19%. This suggests an increasingly bullish sentiment from the options investors in the market.

Based on @Paradigm's data through US Session Hours yesterday, notable BTC option movements encompassed the procurement of a 602x 29-Dec-23 35000 BTC call and a 500x 29-Dec-23 36000 BTC call, both bought. On the ETH side, transactions included a 5000x 24-Nov-23 1500 ETH put and a 5000x 24-Nov-23 1400/1750 ETH bear risk reversal, both bought.

Crypto Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, BTC actively trades near the $28.6K mark, exhibiting an ascending wedge pattern — a technical formation typically viewed as bullish. Notably, BTC has successfully surged above its prior resistance, underpinning its upward momentum. If the current support level, evident around the $25.6K mark, is compromised, we could anticipate a potential decline of approximately 10.4% from its present position. In contrast, the next resistance stands firm at approximately $32K which marks the intersection of the upper boundary of the rising wedge and the horizontal resistance zone. Concurrently, the RSI registers at 68.85, signaling an upward trend and inching towards the overbought territory.

On the other hand, ETH trades around the $1.56K level, showcasing a descending wedge pattern, distinct from Bitcoin's ascending trajectory. This pattern underscores ETH's position below its established resistance, suggesting a bearish undertone. Should ETH navigate beneath its current pricing tier, the subsequent support looms near the $1.45K mark, indicating a potential decrease of roughly 6.4% from its present valuation. On the flip side, an upward drive could encounter resistance near the $1.7K of the upper boundary of the descending wedge pattern. The RSI stands at 47.07, gravitating towards a neutral trajectory, and the overarching chart formation hints at a consolidating market phase.

Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets

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