🌳OpenAI Faces Leadership Shift Amidst Internal Tensions; Yearn.finance Token Plunges Amid Exit Scam Speculation

GM Treehouser 🌳

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

• OpenAI's leadership upheaval impacts AI industry; Taiwan's opposition struggles with election unity (More in Macro & TradFi)
• Yearn.finance token tumbles 43%, community speculates exit scam; dYdX founder claims targeted attack led to $9M insurance claim (More in DeFi & CeFi)
• Bitcoin inscriptions regain dominance in the network's fee market; The percentage of dormant BTC supplies hits a new peak (More in On-Chain)
• BTC sees an increase in IV for 1-day expiry option contracts; Paradigm recorded major flows into BTC derivatives (More in Crypto Derivatives)
• BTC demonstrates bullish trend on ascending triangle, targets $40K; ETH navigates trendlines, faces potential drop (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

In a significant development at OpenAI, co-founder Sam Altman was dismissed from his role due to a "breakdown in communication" with the board, rather than financial misconduct. This unexpected move, which surprised employees and stakeholders, including major investor Microsoft, has raised questions about the future direction and valuation of the AI trailblazer. According to an internal memo, the decision was unrelated to financial, business, safety, or security concerns. Tensions within OpenAI were evident, with disagreements over the pace of technology rollout and safety prioritization. This leadership change could impact the company's plans, including selling employee stock and achieving a proposed $86 billion valuation, while also presenting challenges and opportunities for its rivals in the rapidly evolving AI industry.

In other news, Taiwan's Opposition is currently facing challenges in forming a united front for the upcoming January presidential election, a crucial move aimed at strengthening their position against the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), known for its strained ties with Beijing. Despite an initial agreement between the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) to ally, disagreements over choosing a joint presidential candidate have led to discord. The impasse concerns whether TPP's Ko Wen-je or KMT's Hou Yu-ih should lead. Ko's recent declaration to run for president and continue his campaign has further complicated the negotiations. The failure to establish a unified ticket could favor the DPP’s Lai Ching-te, who is leading in the polls. This development occurs amidst heightened U.S.-China tensions, where an opposition victory, potentially more amenable to dialogue with China, could alter cross-Strait dynamics and geopolitical tensions. The deadline for candidate registration looms, adding pressure on the opposition parties to resolve their differences swiftly.

Last Friday, the DJIA witnessed a marginal increase of 0.01%, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite experienced slight gains of 0.13% and 0.03%, respectively. This subdued performance came as the initial surge, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve might halt its rate hikes, lost momentum. In individual stock movements, Applied Materials saw a 4.02% decline, impacted by a U.S. investigation into its exports to China, overshadowing its strong quarterly earnings. Conversely, Gap soared by 30.58%, outperforming estimates due to robust sales at Old Navy and improvements in its core brand. Attention now shifts to the People's Bank of China, with market participants keenly awaiting its loan prime rate announcement today at 9:15 SGT. Trading activity is expected to dampen later in the week, in anticipation of the US Thanksgiving Holiday.

DeFi & CeFi

• Yearn.finance token tumbles 43%, community speculates exit scam
• dYdX founder claims targeted attack led to $9M insurance claim
• Ripple’s James Wallis underscores CBDCs’ role in breaking financial barriers
• Former Bithumb chair faces 8-year imprisonment
• Fidelity seeks green light for Ethereum ETF, following BlackRock’s filing
• Tech firm Republic taps Avalanche for profit-sharing investment node
• Taiwanese trading firm Kronos Research hacked for estimated $25M
• Binance Labs joins web3 social platform Sleek’s seed token round at $50M valuation

Yearn.finance's governance token YFI dropped 43% within five hours on November 18, erasing more than $300M from its market cap amid community concerns of a potential exit scam. The token, which had surged nearly 170% earlier in the month, caused significant unease within the crypto community, leading to discussions about a sizable portion of tokens held in a limited number of wallets. Some attributed the sell-off to possible short positions taken by traders after the token's substantial November gains. However, there were observations that the price stability around $9,000, despite the significant decline, might not align with typical exit scam behavior.

In related news, decentralized exchange dYdX faced a substantial loss of $9M due to what its founder, Antonio Juliano, described as a "targeted attack" against the platform. This attack led to the utilization of dYdX's v3 insurance fund to cover liquidations in the Yearn.finance market, which declined 43% as mentioned. Juliano expressed the belief that this was a deliberate effort of market manipulation against dYdX and the YFI market. Although the incident did not affect user funds, dYdX plans to conduct a comprehensive review of its risk parameters and potential software changes.

On-Chain

According to data from @glassnode, the percentage of BTC transaction fees derived from inscriptions is approaching its high from May. BTC inscriptions, also known as Bitcoin Ordinal Inscriptions, represent digital assets inscribed on satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin, made possible by the Taproot upgrade launched on November 14, 2021. This trend indicates a renewed interest in BTC Ordinals, considering they gradually phased out in late June. This trend also correlated with the price movements of ORDI, a memecoin closely linked to the Ordinals trend, as it has witnessed a 5X return in the last 30 days, reaching a new all-time high.

On the flip side, another data from @glassnode indicates that the percentage of BTC supply inactive for over 1 year has surged to a new high of 70%. This highlights a growing issue of supply illiquidity, suggesting that a substantial portion of BTC may be inaccessible in the market due to users possibly losing their wallet seed phrases. Simultaneously, this data indicates an escalating potential for selling pressure, particularly with the recent price upswing, enticing many long-term holders to enter the profit zone once again.

Crypto Derivatives

• Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
• Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH stayed relatively flat, currently at 56.30% and 57.12%, respectively.
• The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH fell to 4.99% and 3.70%, respectively.
• The futures market witnessed $304.46M liquidations since Friday, with longs representing 56.67% of the total.

Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities

Over the weekend, there was an initial dip in both BTC's 7-day and 30-day implied volatility before stabilizing at approximately the same level as Friday's figures. This indicates the market's expectation of a certain degree of stability in the short term for BTC.

Meanwhile, BTC's term structure has remained generally stable in the last 24 hours. Short-dated contracts expiring in 0-18 days have experienced an increase in IV ranging from 3-15%, with the most notable surge observed in 1-day options, likely a result of the anticipated outcome of the BTC ETF approval decision of Global X on 21st Nov.

The 25-delta call-put skew has remained predominantly stable. The 7-day BTC skew witnessed a slight increase from 4.51% on Friday to 5.43%, suggesting a growing bullish sentiment as traders concentrate on potential upside profits. Simultaneously, the 30-day skew has largely remained unchanged, possibly indicating stable expectations for the month ahead. This reflects a sustained, slight optimism among market participants.

Lastly, data from @Paradigm suggests that whales and institutional investors are beginning to place substantial bets on BTC. On Saturday the 18th, a recorded trade on Paradigm transactions involved a 1,000x call calendar with 26-Jan-24 39,000 / 29 Dec 2023 37,000, coupled with a perpetual position opened for $1.8M at $36K each. This indicates a strong conviction in BTC's upside potential as it approaches the ETF deadlines in January 2024.

Crypto Technical Analysis

Onto the technical analysis of BTC, the market exhibits a bullish sentiment as evidenced by the 4-hour chart. BTC is currently trading at $37.3K and is maintaining a clear upward trend line. The formation of a bullish ascending wedge pattern suggests that if the price breaks out of this pattern, we could anticipate a 5-6% increase, targeting the next resistance zone at $38K to $40K. However, should the ascending triangle fail to hold, a bearish reversal could be on the horizon, with the price potentially retesting the $36K level in line with the trend line. In a more pronounced bearish scenario, BTC might descend towards the next support zone at $31.5K. The RSI, currently at 61.45%, corroborates the potential for further upside, though the market remains cautious of the critical resistance levels that could impede this trajectory.

On the other hand, ETH has exhibited a more volatile pattern over the 4-hour chart, with its price action on Friday breaking below a critical trendline. Over the weekend, ETH retested this lower trendline but did not conclusively break through, indicating uncertainty. Currently, ETH is attempting to challenge the blue trendline above, which, if successfully breached, could signal a bullish momentum with an approximate 6-7% increase to retest resistance levels at $2.12K to $2.16K. Conversely, a failure to surpass this blue trendline could result in a retracement to the $1.88K support range, aligning with past resistance levels, potentially leading to an 8-9% drop before leading to the next support at $1.72K to $1.76K.

Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets

By Treehouse Research

Daily Readings

TradFi

• Sam Altman appears at OpenAI offices as pressure grows to reinstate him

• Falling fuel prices and airfares bring relief ahead of US Thanksgiving

• Around 3,000 trucks stuck at Ukrainian border due to Polish drivers' blockade

• Most Gulf markets gain on rising oil prices

• Westpac to raise $488 million in additional Tier 1 capital

• France may sell real estate to cut deficit, review seniors' unemployment benefits

• Blackstone frontrunner in Signature Bank commercial-property loan sale, Bloomberg reports

• Moody's upgrades Portugal's rating two notches, despite political crisis

• Facebook-parent Meta breaks up its Responsible AI team

• Taiwan’s Opposition in Disarray as Talks for an Alliance Stumble

• Barclays Expects Bumper Japan Profit Driven by BOJ Trading Bets

Crypto

• Yearn.finance token tumbles 43%, community speculates on exit scam.

• dYdX founder claims targeted attack led to $9M insurance claim.

• Ripple’s James Wallis underscores CBDCs’ role in breaking financial barriers.

• Bitcoin ETF approval nearing, but brace for more setbacks — BitGo CEO.

• Former Bithumb chair faces 8-year imprisonment.

• Fidelity seeks green light for Ethereum ETF, following BlackRock’s filing.

• ‘Primitive’ stablecoin lacks mechanisms that maintain fiat stability: BIS report.

• Tech firm Republic taps Avalanche for profit-sharing investment note.

• Taiwanese trading firm Kronos Research hacked for estimated $25 million: ZachXBT

• FTX creditor claims increase to as high as 65 cents on the dollar

• Sam Altman remains at Worldcoin's developer while he may return to OpenAI

Deal Flow

• Binance Labs joins web3 social platform Sleek's seed token round at $50 million valuation

Yours sincerely,
Treehouse Research 🌳