BTC

ETH

S&P 500 Futures

$62,916.00

$2,569.25

$5,794.50

(-1.85%)

 (-2.58%)

(+0.15%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM 🌳

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August 2024 Market Recap

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • OpenAI eyes 7% equity for CEO Sam Altman; UK consumer sentiment drops on fiscal policy concerns (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • PayPal allows U.S. business accounts to buy, hold, and sell crypto; Binance launches pre-market spot trading (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings grow to 252,200 BTC; Ether burn surges 163%, signaling potential price volatility (More in On-Chain)
  • BTC ATM IVs drop across the board while C-P skew remains constant near the neutral territory (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC and ETH price levels get rejected from resistance level, with RSI indicating short-term bearishness (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

OpenAI is considering a significant shift by offering CEO Sam Altman a 7% equity stake as it transitions to a for-profit structure, possibly becoming a public benefit corporation. This move aligns with ongoing internal changes, including the departure of CTO Mira Murati, a key figure in the company's rise with products like ChatGPT and DALL-E. Murati's exit adds to a series of leadership changes following last year's brief firing and rehiring of Altman. These developments come as OpenAI seeks to raise $6.5 billion at a $150 billion valuation, positioning itself as one of the world's most valuable startups. 

Meanwhile, UK consumer sentiment has worsened significantly in September, driven by concerns over fiscal policy changes introduced by the new Labour government. According to a British Retail Consortium (BRC) survey, the public's confidence in the economic outlook over the next three months fell to -21, down from -8 in August, reaching its lowest level since the survey began. The decline is attributed to the removal of a £200 fuel subsidy for pensioners and the anticipation of tax hikes in the upcoming budget. These results align with other surveys, signaling growing unease among households and businesses as they await further economic clarity.

Lastly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday as investors weighed economic indicators and anticipated further insights from the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts. Despite recent gains fueled by optimism around China’s stimulus package and expectations of rate reductions, weaker consumer sentiment raised concerns about labor market stability. The tech-heavy Nasdaq edged slightly higher, supported by a 2.14% rise in Nvidia shares. Energy stocks led declines across sectors, while Amgen's mixed drug data pressured the Dow. Market attention now shifts to upcoming jobless claims, inflation data, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today.

DeFi & CeFi

  • PayPal Enables U.S. Business Accounts to Buy, Hold and Sell Crypto
  • Binance launches pre-market spot trading
  • Visa to Help Banks Issue Fiat-Backed Tokens
  • Terraform Labs may close products, services in bankruptcy wind-down

PayPal has expanded its cryptocurrency services to U.S. business accounts, allowing them to buy, hold, and sell crypto directly through their accounts. This move responds to increasing demand from business owners, following the company's similar offerings for retail users since 2020. Additionally, U.S. merchants will be able to transfer cryptocurrency externally to eligible third-party wallets. However, businesses in New York State will not have immediate access due to regulatory restrictions under the state's BitLicense. 

In other news, Binance has introduced a pre-market spot trading service that allows users to trade actual tokens before their official listing on the platform, distinguishing it from competitors who typically offer derivative-based pre-market trading. This service, a collaboration between Binance Spot and Binance Launchpool, enables users to trade tokens after Launchpool distribution but before the official spot listing, albeit with some restrictions on withdrawal and transfers. Unlike other exchanges like Bybit and Coinbase, which utilize derivatives or perpetual futures for pre-market trading, Binance's approach ensures users hold and trade real tokens. 

On-Chain

According to CryptoQuant, MicroStrategy now holds 252,200 Bitcoin (BTC), following two significant purchases last week of 18,300 BTC and 7,420 BTC. This positions the company as one of the largest holders of Bitcoin, representing 1.276% of the total circulating supply. Microstrategy’s accumulation shows Micheal Saylor’s commitment to BTC as a key treasury asset, which could influence market sentiment and institutional interest in Bitcoin as a store of value.

According to Lookonchain, the daily amount of Ether burned has surged by 163% over the past week. A chart comparing ETH price with daily burn rates shows that similar increases in ETH burning preceded price surges in January and October 2023. This pattern suggests a correlation between higher ETH burn rates and increased price volatility. If this trend holds, the recent spike in ETH burning could signal upcoming periods of heightened volatility for ETH, offering a potential indicator for traders and investors.

Derivatives

  • Funding rates for both BTC and ETH flipped back to positive.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH decreased to 49.62% and 57.56% respectively.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH remained flat at -0.30 and -1.48, respectively.
  • The futures market witnessed $98.08M in liquidations in the last 24 hours, with longs representing 69.27%.

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

16.67%

AVAX

OKX

dYdX

16.20%

AVAX

Bybit

dYdX

11.94%

AVAX

OKX

Binance

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.

BTC ATM IVs have continued to decline as the price experiences another correction below $63K. Specifically, the 7-day IV is at 43.29%, marking the lowest level in the past 30 days. This indicates the market's expectation of lower volatility in price movements for the week ahead.

The BTC term structure remains in a contango shape, with noticeable declines in IVs across the curve over the last 24 hours. These declines were largely uniform, suggesting that traders may anticipate BTC has reached a relatively stable price level in the foreseeable future.

The call-put skew, on the other hand, has seen minimal changes in the last 24 hours, remaining in neutral territory. This continues to indicate that traders are uncertain about BTC's future direction.

Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted a trading session with mixed flows with some rolling puts while others buying short term calls. Key trades included the purchase of 412x 4-Oct-24 $60K / 11-Oct-24 $60K BTC Put Calendar and the sale of 3,000x 25-Oct-24 $3K Call.

Crypto Technical Analysis

Moving on to technical analysis, Bitcoin is currently at $63.2K and hovering near a resistance zone around the $63.9K - $64.8K range. The price action shows consolidation below this key resistance, having recently pulled back after a minor rejection from this level. Should the resistance at $63.9K be decisively breached, the next target could be the psychological level of $69.7K, which represents an approximate 10.8% rise from the current price. As the RSI declines further to 44.27, the market sentiment for the BTC major appears to turn slightly bearish in the short term.

Similarly, ETH failed to break through the resistance zone of $2.7K and $2.8K, with the price pulling back to $2.5K, indicating that sellers dominate the market. ETH is currently in an area of consolidation with the support level formed at $2.2K, a 12% difference from the current price level. After showing signs of weakness after failing to break through the resistance zone and the RSI level declining to 45.38, traders should look out for a potential breakdown that could lead to further downside.

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TRHX Research (Formerly Treehouse Research) 🌳