BTC

ETH

S&P Futures 500

$68,119.25

$3,757.00

$5,300.00

(+1.87%)

 (-0.37%)

(-0.11%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)


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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • NYSE software glitch displayed -99% for numerous stocks; GameStop surged further as Keith Gill holds his positions after Monday’s pump (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • $1M lost on Binance from a Chrome plugin hack; Chainlink highlights the importance of decentralized oracles in a TradFi setting (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • BTC miner supply at 14 year low; BTC long-term holders MVRV at critical ratios (More in On-Chain)
  • Bitcoin options suggest rising volatility and bullish sentiment; skew surges as 'onchain' searches hit record highs (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC breakout from descending triangle; ETH continues to test levels (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

During a software update on Monday, the New York Stock Exchange experienced a glitch that halted trading on approximately 40 stocks and displayed erroneous trades showing a 99% drop in companies like Berkshire Hathaway Inc. The disruption lasted about 45 minutes and was resolved when the Consolidated Tape Association reverted to a backup data center. NYSE plans to cancel the bad trades and is reviewing the halts for potential cancellations. The glitch did not impact Nasdaq-listed shares significantly and occurred as trading infrastructure adapts to one-day settlements. Despite minimal broader market impact, the incident raised questions about the cause and highlighted the complexities of equity trading across multiple exchanges. 

Elsewhere, Keith Gill, known as "DeepF------Value" on Reddit and "Roaring Kitty" on YouTube, appeared to maintain his significant position in GameStop despite Monday's rally, posting screenshots of his unchanged holdings of 5 million shares and 120,000 call options with a strike price of $20. The post on Reddit's r/SuperStonk forum coincided with GameStop's 4% rise in extended trading after a volatile session where it closed up 21%. Gill's decision not to sell came even as his stake's value surged from $115.7 million to $140 million in a single day, following a Wall Street Journal report suggesting potential brokerage concerns about market manipulation.

Lastly, U.S. stocks had a mixed performance on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.3%, the S&P 500 edging up 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.5%. Weak manufacturing and construction data, along with a 3% decline in oil prices, pressured industrial stocks. Chevron (CVX) slumped 3%, and Caterpillar (CAT) dropped 2.2%. Nvidia (NVDA) boosted tech shares by rising 4.9% after unveiling its next-generation AI chip platform. Treasury yields fell to 4.49% as investors look ahead to Friday's jobs report, which could influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

DeFi & CeFi

  • More than $1M stolen from a single user on Binance due to a Chrome plugin
  • Chainlink highlights the importance of decentralized oracles following the NYSE glitch
  • SingularityNET announces ASI token merger dates
  • MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor settle tax case for $40M
  • Australia’s first spot BTC ETF is set to launch on Tuesday.

Hackers exploited a Google Chrome plugin called Aggr to steal $1 million from a Chinese trader's Binance account by using stolen cookies to bypass security measures, including two-factor authentication. The trader, CryptoNakamao, accused Binance of inadequate security and delayed response despite knowing about the fraudulent plugin. The hackers used cross-trading to manipulate low liquidity pairs and profit from unauthorized trades. Yi He, the co-founder of Binance, denied responsibility from Binance in the incident and clarified that the account was frozen quickly but significant losses had already occurred due to leveraged trades initiated by the hacker. She advised users against using active cookie plugins for login convenience, emphasizing Binance's inability to compensate for breaches caused by compromised devices.

In other news, following a New York Stock Exchange glitch Chainlink co-founder and CEO Sergey Nazarov highlighted the vulnerabilities of centralized financial systems. In a statement to Cointelegraph, Nazarov suggested that Chainlink's decentralized oracle networks could mitigate these risks by providing tamper-proof, accurate data. By aggregating data from multiple sources and using consensus mechanisms to validate information, these networks ensure data integrity, preventing erroneous trades and price manipulations. He emphasized that incorporating blockchain technology could enhance the reliability and transparency of financial markets through real-time verification and automated anomaly responses.

On-Chain

Today's on-chain analysis from CryptoQuant reveals that miner holdings of Bitcoin are at their lowest point in nearly 14 years, marking a significant reduction of 50% from previous highs. The previous time miner reserves were this low was when Bitcoin was still under the stewardship of its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, and the landscape of cryptocurrencies was vastly different with no altcoins, and key industry players like Michael Saylor had yet to enter the scene. This dramatic decrease in miner reserves, combined with ongoing high demand and lower inflation, is setting the stage for a potential supply crunch. Investors and companies that recognize and prepare for these long-term supply dynamics could see substantial benefits as the market adjusts, possibly quite abruptly, to these conditions.

Another analysis from Glassnode showcases a nuanced dynamic in Bitcoin’s market, as observed through the lens of Long-Term Holders (LTHs) and their position changes. Currently, the Long-Term Holder MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio stands at 3.25, indicating a significant buildup of unrealized profits among these stalwarts. Historically, during the transitional phase between bear and bull markets, this ratio fluctuates between 1.5 and 3.5, marking a critical threshold where LTHs begin considering capitalizing on gains. This setup suggests that as the market momentum continues upward, potentially forming new all-time highs, the incentive for LTHs to sell increases, which could introduce considerable sell-side pressure. The most recent data from March underscores this trend, with a net distribution rate of 519k BTC, significantly influenced by Grayscale ETF movements. Despite this sell-off, a subsequent period of accumulation has begun, with a modest monthly growth in LTH supply, signaling a potential cooling-off phase after substantial sell-offs. This ongoing interplay between buying strength and selling incentives underscores the delicate balance that could define the market's next phases.

Derivatives

  • Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained relatively unchanged at 52.27% and 64.60%.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC increased to 2.31% while ETH dipped slightly to 4.11%.
  • The futures market witnessed $125.29M  in liquidation, with longs representing 62.02%.

Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

14.16%

BNB

Binance

OKX

11.38%

ADA

Bybit

OKX

10.49%

ADA

dYdX

OKX

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.


Bitcoin’s 7-day ATM IVs rose to 45.66% while 30-day ATM IVs rose at 50.58% as option traders speculating on the increased volatility in the near future, potentially anticipating the start of the ETH ETFs’ trading. 

BTC’s term structure exhibits traits contango, with no significant changes except for tenors up to 30 days, which has increased from the previous day. This suggests that BTC option investors are largely purchasing near-dated options. 

Furthermore, BTC's 25-delta skews have increased significantly over the past day, with the 7-day skews increasing to 2.78%, and the 30-day delta skews rose to 2.31%. This indicates that market participants in the Bitcoin options market are bullish, which could be due to Worldwide searches for ‘onchain’ on Google hitting an all-time high, suggesting that retail investors may be looking to enter the market.

Lastly, @Paradigm’s option flows from yesterday emphasized strategies consisting mainly of call calendars bought for ETH structures. Key BTC trades encompassed the procurement of 200x 14-Jun-24 76000 Calls, 100x 14-Jun-24 64000 Puts, and a singular transaction that involved the purchase of 100x

Crypto Technical Analysis

Moving on to technical analysis, following yesterday's analysis where BTC exhibited a descending triangle pattern suggesting a potential downtrend, today’s 4-hour chart shows a notable shift in momentum, with BTC currently trading around $69.1K, clearly breaking the upper boundary of the earlier pattern. This upward movement indicates a reversal of the previously identified bearish sentiment, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.16 reflecting strengthened buying pressure as it approaches the overbought zone. The break above $68.2K resistance, previously highlighted, suggests a new support formation at this level, with BTC now targeting the next resistance at $71K.

ETH is currently trading around $3.7k, with the market currently experiencing a slight pullback from a recent high. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62.50, indicating a somewhat overbought condition but still providing room for potential upside before hitting extreme levels. Ethereum is testing the support near $3.6k, marked by the 50-day moving average (blue line), after failing to sustain levels above the $3.9K resistance. If ETH maintains its position above the $3.6K support, there might be another attempt to breach the $3.9K resistance. A successful break above this resistance could target the next significant level at around $4.2k, near the upper Bollinger Band. Conversely, a breakdown below $3.6k could see ETH testing further support at around $3.4k, aligning with the lower Bollinger Band.

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