BTC

ETH

S&P Futures 500

$71,022.67

$3,861.42

$5,368.25

(+2.68%)

 (+1.75%)

(+1.10%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)


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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • Nvidia overtakes Apple to be the second-most valuable public U.S. company; Bank of Canada announces reduction in overnight rate target (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • Paxos International to launch new interest-bearing stablecoin; Marathon reports over 60% of BTC supply being sold post halving (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • ADA, SHIB, and JASMY garnered significant interests from whales; On-chain data shows significant BTC re-accumulation from whale addresses (More in On-Chain)
  • BTC term structure remains in contango; implied volatility and skew rise amid ETF uncertainty (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC encounters resistance near $71K; ETH faces similar challenge around $3.90K (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

Nvidia has surpassed Apple to become the second-most valuable public U.S. company, achieving a $3 trillion market cap as its stock rose over 5%, driven by its dominant 80% share in the artificial intelligence chip market. This development underscores Nvidia's pivotal role in the AI sector, where it has capitalized on booming demand, in contrast to Apple, which saw a 4% drop in overall sales and a 10% decrease in iPhone sales. Investors are increasingly optimistic about Nvidia's growth prospects in AI, while Apple faces challenges such as demand issues in China and mixed responses to new products like the Vision Pro headset.

Moving on, the Bank of Canada has announced a reduction in its overnight rate target to 4.75%, a move aligned with ongoing efforts to normalize its balance sheet. This decision follows modest global economic growth of about 3% in the first quarter of 2024, with varying performances across major economies. While the U.S. experienced slower growth than anticipated, the euro area saw an uptick, and China's economy strengthened, mainly driven by exports and industrial production. Despite these differences, inflation across most advanced economies is on a downward trend, albeit unevenly.

Lastly, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs, climbing 1.18% and 1.96% respectively, driven by strong performances in technology stocks amid signs of a cooling labor market that might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later in the year. Specifically, private payroll growth slowed, and job openings dropped to their lowest in three years, which bolstered investor confidence, pushing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September to 69%. The technology sector saw significant movement, with Nvidia's shares jumping as its market valuation reached $3 trillion, overtaking Apple to become the world's second-most valuable company. Additionally, Hewlett Packard Enterprise's stock rose 10.7% after projecting higher revenue, driven by strong demand for its AI servers. Conversely, Dollar Tree's shares fell by 4.9% following a weaker profit forecast, highlighting its struggles amidst overall market gains.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Gary Gensler says Spot Ether ETF approvals will ‘take some time’ 
  • Paxos International to launch new U.S. dollar backed stablecoin
  • Marathon Digital reports that over 60% of BTC mined was sold post halving
  • Zone introduces PoS gateway
  • General election may delay UK's crypto regulation
  • Coinbase launches smart wallet with no gas fees

SEC Chair Gary Gensler has indicated potential delays in the final approval of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during a June 5 CNBC interview, suggesting that the process will "take some time." Although the SEC recently approved 19b-4 filings from major firms like VanEck, BlackRock, and Fidelity, among others, the final steps for listing and trading these ETFs on U.S. exchanges may extend over several months. Gensler also noted the commission's ongoing enforcement actions against crypto firms for activities outside traditional regulatory bounds. Despite these delays, the SEC has initiated steps toward eventual Ether ETF listings, following the approval of several spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year.

In other news, Paxos International plans to launch an interest-bearing stablecoin called the Lift Dollar (USDL), which will be regulated in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) but will not be available in the U.S. and several other regions. The USDL, pegged to the U.S. dollar, aims to offer overnight yields based on the interest earned from its reserves, primarily consisting of liquid U.S. government securities and cash equivalents. Unlike typical stablecoins, USDL's interest distribution will be managed through a rebasing mechanism on an Ethereum smart contract, expected to yield about 5%. This move marks Paxos International's entry into offering a regulated interest-paying stablecoin, aligning with ADGM's emerging stature as a hub for digital finance, enhanced by its comprehensive regulations and strategic partnerships in distributed ledger technology.

On-Chain

Based on an analysis by Santiment, ADA, SHIB, and JASMY have recently garnered sudden interest from whales, which has led to significant price surges. Notably, the number of transactions worth $100K and above has more than doubled this week compared to the average value in 2024. This surge suggests heightened interest from whales and possibly indicates an accumulation phase. Traders should closely monitor these whale activities as they anticipate further increased volatility in the near future.

Another analysis from Cryptoquant, recent On-chain analysis indicates a shift in the behavior of institutional investors towards reaccumulation. Unlike long-term-focused Bitcoin investors, institutional whales are typically geared towards medium-term profits rather than creating reserves. This behavior is observable through monthly variations in Bitcoin reserves of entities holding more than 1,000 BTC, influencing pricing directly. Following a period of distribution in March, institutional investors have begun reaccumulating in the past two weeks, leading to a noticeable impact on market prices expected to strengthen in the upcoming weeks.

Derivatives

  • Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained relatively unchanged at 55.51% and 67.76%.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH increased to 2.17% and 4.34%, respectively.
  • The futures market witnessed $111.85M  in liquidation, with shorts representing 59.87%.

Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

48.77%

BNB

Binance

OKX

44.45%

BNB

Bybit

OKX

40.55%

SOL

Bybit

dYdX

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.


Bitcoin's 7-day ATM implied volatility (IV) rose slightly to 51.83%, while the 30-day ATM IV rose to 54.12%. 

BTC's term structure remains in contango, with a notable increase in implied volatility (IV) across the curve, indicating that option investors anticipate higher volatility in BTC in the near term. This heightened expectation of volatility could be attributed to SEC Chairman Gensler's statement that the ETH ETF approval process still has several steps to complete, suggesting these products may not be available on exchanges for several months. This delay likely contributes to market uncertainty and the increased volatility expectations.

Additionally, BTC's 25-delta skews have decreased over the past day, with the 7-day skews rising to 2.95% and the 30-day skews rising to 2.17%. An initial spike in skew occurred following Gensler's interview, but subsequently fell as option investors recognized that an ETH ETF approval would not materialize within the next 30 days. This indicates that while there was immediate market reaction to potential regulatory news, the realization of a longer timeline tempered the initial volatility expectations.

Lastly, @Paradigm’s option flows from yesterday emphasized strategies consisting of call and put spreads. Key BTC trades encompassed the procurement of 1038x 26-Jul-24 92/100k Call Spreads, 451x 26-Jul-24 92/100k Call Spreads, and a singular transaction that involved the sale of 100x (Inverse) 26-Jul-24 90k / 30-Aug-24 120k Call Calendars. Key ETH trades included the sale of 6500x 28-Jun-24 5000 Calls and 2500x -1.00-Call-28-Jun-24 4500 / +2.00-Call-26-Jul-24 5000 Custom strategies.

Crypto Technical Analysis

Moving on to technical analysis, BTC remains on its bullish trajectory, edging slightly higher. Presently, it hovers around the $71K mark, encountering robust resistance that has been repeatedly tested over the past two months. A breakthrough of this $71K resistance could propel prices upwards, possibly toward the all-time high near $73.5K. However, the RSI is nearing overbought levels, suggesting the potential for a short-term reversal. Given the prevailing resistance, a temporary pullback may see BTC finding support around $67.5K.

ETH’s price is currently around 3.86K, showing a consolidation phase after a recent upward trend. The price is approaching but has not yet breached the resistance level near 3.90K, indicating that there is still some room for some growth. However, the RSI is heightened at 62.47, suggesting a possible short-term reversal as the market approaches this resistance. Should the 3.90K resistance be breached, the next significant resistance is around 4.10K, representing a potential rise of approximately 6.2% from the current price levels. Conversely, immediate support is observed around 3.70K, a decline of approximately 4.1% from current levels. 

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