BTC | ETH | S&P 500 Futures |
$67,386.50 | $2,547.50 | $5,851.50 |
(+0.26%) | (-2.60%) | (-0.54%) |
Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8) |
GM 🌳
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Our Daily View
What We Are Covering Today
- North Korea's military support for Russia escalates the Ukraine conflict; South Korea's economy returns to growth (More in Macro & TradFi)
- Tesla‘s quarterly earnings report shows continued holdings of digital assets; BiT Global board member defends Justin Sun’s role in WBTC (More in DeFi & CeFi)
- Increase in net capital inflows into BTC major; Crypto whale purchases various memecoins with $5.46M worth of SOL (More in On-Chain)
- BTC 7D and 30D ATM volatilities diverges; $200M in longs liquidated in 24H (More in Crypto Derivatives)
- BTC bounces off from immediate support level; ETH trending downwards, nearing oversold territory (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)
Macro & TradFi
North Korea is reportedly deploying thousands of troops to Russia, specifically to the Kursk region, to support Russian forces in the war against Ukraine, according to Kyiv intelligence and U.S. officials. The deployment, estimated at 12,000 soldiers, represents an unprecedented level of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed the presence of North Korean troops in Russia, warning of serious global security implications, particularly in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. This move has heightened concerns among Ukraine's allies, with South Korea considering the provision of military aid to Ukraine in response. If North Korean forces enter combat, it would escalate the conflict and indicate Russia's increasing reliance on foreign military support, potentially signaling Kremlin weakness.
Elsewhere, South Korea's economy is expected to have returned to growth in the third quarter of 2024, with a projected 0.5% expansion following a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter, according to a Reuters poll. Strong export performance, particularly in semiconductors driven by U.S. demand, has been key in offsetting weak domestic consumption impacted by high borrowing costs. On an annual basis, growth is forecasted at 2.0%, down slightly from 2.3% in the previous quarter. However, cooling export momentum with China, Japan, and India, combined with elevated household debt, continues to weigh on the recovery. Despite a recent rate cut by the Bank of Korea (BOK), further cuts are unlikely in the short term, as concerns over the housing market remain. The overall growth forecast for 2024 stands at 2.4%.
U.S. stocks fell as election-related uncertainty dampened economic activity, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by 0.96%, marking its third drop this week. The S&P 500 slipped 0.92%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.60%. McDonald’s shares plunged 4.7% after an E. coli outbreak linked to its Quarter Pounder resulted in one death and multiple illnesses. Coca-Cola dropped 2.3% despite maintaining its annual profit growth forecast, as concerns over revenue increases weighed on sentiment. The Consumer Discretionary sector declined 1.1%, while rising benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, reaching three-month highs, added pressure on equities. US JOLTS Job Openings are due next Tuesday at 22:00 SGT.
DeFi & CeFi
- Tesla did not sell any of its crypto holdings for the 5th consecutive quarter
- BiT Global board member defends Justin’s Sun’s role in WBTC
- Uniswap announces the launch of permissionless cross-chain bridging
- Denmark to pioneer tax on unrealized gains for cryptocurrencies
- Vitalik criticized Saylor’s suggestion to give BTC custody to big banks
Tesla's Q3 2024 earnings report confirmed that the company did not sell any of its Bitcoin holdings during the quarter, maintaining a total investment in digital assets valued at approximately $184 million. This marks five consecutive quarters without any sale of its crypto holdings. Tesla remains a key player in the crypto space, especially since its initial Bitcoin investment of $1.5 billion in 2021, and its digital asset holdings continue to be closely monitored by market participants. Despite recent market speculation regarding wallet activity, Arkham’s data affirms that Tesla's affiliated wallets continue to hold about 11,509 BTC, valued at roughly $750 million.
Meanwhile, in an interview, Robert Liu, a board member of Hong Kong-based BiT Global, defended Justin Sun's advisory role in the Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) project, asserting that Sun's involvement could strengthen the initiative, especially given the Tron blockchain's trust among USDT holders. The WBTC project aims to increase its market size significantly through a diversified custodial strategy, appealing to international buyers. Liu highlighted concerns regarding decentralized alternatives to WBTC, emphasizing the accountability that comes with their structured setup and the need for a trusted custodian in managing substantial crypto assets. As the project seeks to navigate regulatory challenges and bolster user confidence, Liu asserted that Sun's strategic input is vital for expanding WBTC's reach and utility in the evolving crypto landscape.
On-Chain
In a weekly on-chain analysis by Glassnode, Bitcoin's on-chain data reveals a rise in net capital inflows, increasing by $21.8B over the last 30 days, pushing the Realized Cap to a new all-time high of $646B. This signifies improving liquidity and sustained capital support for the ongoing price rally. The AVIV Ratio, which measures investor profitability, remains above its yearly average, showing resilience as active investors defend their cost basis. Notably, the AVIV Ratio has room for growth, suggesting a potential price upside if momentum continues. Bitcoin's price is in the transition from an Enthusiastic to a Euphoric Bull Market, with the recent breach of $69k aligning with this phase. Although the March 2024 peak led to some profit-taking, the current rally has put most recent buyers (Short-Term Holders) into a state of unrealized profit, a positive indicator for market sentiment. Traders should adopt a cautious approach as the market nears potential euphoria, which could introduce volatility and profit-taking.
Another analysis by Lookonchain highlighted a newly created wallet that has withdrawn 32,695 SOL, worth approximately $5.46M, from Binance to purchase various memecoins. The wallet bought 6.95M GOAT for 18,000 SOL at a price of $0.43 per GOAT, 31.71M GIGA for 11,750 SOL at $0.062 per GIGA, and 1.98M FWOG for 2,900 SOL at $0.24 per FWOG. This aggressive buying suggests a strong speculative interest in these memecoins, signaling rising volatility and opportunities in the memecoin market.
Derivatives
- Funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive.
- Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained flat at 56.31% and 63.23% respectively.
- The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH dropped to 2.86 and 0.30 respectively.
- The futures market witnessed $269.56M in liquidations over the weekend, with longs representing 76.74%.
Net Annualized APR | Perp (USDT pair) | Long on | Short On |
57.64% | DOGE | OKX | dYdX |
56.98% | DOGE | Binance | dYdX |
40.24% | ADA | OKX | dYdX |
Notes: 1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX. 3) Lookback period is 24 hours. | |||
Both the 7-day and 30-day at-the-money implied volatilities for Bitcoin have diverged further. The 7-day ATM IV shows a continued decline, indicating easing short-term market uncertainty, while the 30-day ATM volatility remains elevated, reflecting continued caution over the medium term.
Today’s term structure continues to exhibit a contango shape. Compared to yesterday, the curve has slightly shifted upward, particularly in the short term, suggesting an increase in near-term uncertainty. However, the long-term outlook remains consistent with a steady rise in volatility expectations.
The 7-day and 30-day skews for Bitcoin have shown a slight convergence. The 7-day skew has moved downwards, indicating a slight increase in the preference for puts over calls in the short term, suggesting some traders are positioning for potential downside risk. Meanwhile, the 30-day skew remains relatively stable, showing that medium-term sentiment is not shifting significantly, with traders maintaining a balanced outlook between calls and puts.
Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted key BTC trades, which included the purchase of a 500x 27-Dec-24 $70K Call, a 230x 29-Nov-24 $80K Call, a 225x 25-Oct-24 $66K Straddle, the sale of a 200x 29-Nov-24 $55K/$85K Bull Risk Reversal, and the sale of a 200x 27-Dec-24 $45K/$100K Strangle. For ETH, notable trades were the purchase of a 1600x 8-Nov-24 $2.6K/$3K Call Spread, a 1000x custom position involving -2 Puts (25-Oct-24 $2.5K) and +1 Call (1-Nov-24 $2.6K), and the purchase of a 1000x 25-Oct-24 $3K / 1-Nov-24 $3.1K Call Calendar.
Crypto Technical Analysis
Moving on to technical analysis, BTC is currently trading around $67.2K after a small bounce from the immediate support level of $66.1K. The price is approaching the next resistance near $69.7K, a 3.7% upside, which has been a critical resistance zone in the past. The RSI level recently bounced from being in oversold conditions to a neutral level of 47.41. A breakout above resistance would likely trigger a bullish rally, while a rejection could lead to a retest of the immediate support level. Traders should monitor these key levels for confirmation of the next move.
Moving on to the 4-hour chart for ETH, ETH is currently trading around $2.5K, having experienced a sharp rejection from the resistance zone near $2.7K. The price is moving down after hitting the upper Bollinger Band, and it is now testing the next significant support at $2.2K, a 12% decline from the current price levels. The RSI has been trending lower in recent sessions and is currently at 33.47, which is close to oversold territory, reflecting the increased selling pressure after the rejection from the $2.7K resistance level. Traders should monitor these key levels and the RSI for signs of a potential bounce or continuation of the downtrend.
Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets
By TRHX Research
Daily Readings
TradFi
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Nvidia supplier SK Hynix posts record quarterly profit as AI boom drives demand.
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DOJ warns Elon Musk pro-Trump PAC that $1 million voter contest may be illegal
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CDC told McDonald's about potential E. coli outbreak late last week
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Apple releases new preview of its AI, including ChatGPT integration
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Harris blasts Trump on reported Hitler comments, says 'he wants unchecked power'
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Apple analyst Kuo says company cut iPhone 16 orders by 10 million units
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Russian forces capture two villages in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv acknowledges Russian pressure
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Israeli strikes kill 42 in Gaza as tanks tighten siege of north
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South Korea economy likely returned to growth in Q3: Reuters poll
Crypto
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Trump Polymarket Odds Briefly Dip After His No. 2 Bull Adds Bet on Harris
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Lazarus Group exploited Chrome vulnerability with fake NFT game
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Buterin proposes radical shift in Ethereum to reduce hardware requirements
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Chinese OTC trader linked to laundering millions for North Korean hackers
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Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan to be set FREE as Nigerian government drops all charges
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zkLink postpones its token vesting schedule ahead of planned product launches
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Uniswap's permissionless bridging goes live across nine networks
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Ripple CEO Garlinghouse predicts crypto 'reset' after US election, criticizes Biden administration
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GameFi set to leap to $301 billion by 2030 with real-world rewards – Nansen
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Justin Sun Might Be Good for Wrapped Bitcoin, Says New Custodian's Director
Deal Flow
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Arbitrum-based crypto derivatives trading protocol Variational raises $10.3 million in seed funding
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Bitkraft Ventures leads $9 million seed round in crypto mobile gaming platform Party Icons
Yours sincerely,
TRHX Research (Formerly Treehouse Research) 🌳