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Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM Treehouser 🌳

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • June FOMC minutes indicated Fed officials’ concerns over “entrenched” inflation rather than recession
  • US equities end higher; Brent Crude plummets to below $100 and US Treasury yield curve remains inverted
  • Voyager files Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection; Ethereum successfully Merge testnet Sepolia
  • On-chain analysis indicates growing Non-Zero Balance addresses and falling exchange reserves
  • Total liquidations in the past 24H were $110M, 38.9% of which being ETH perps

Macro & TradFi

GM! US crude inventories increased by about 3.8 million barrels for the week ended July 1, compared to expectations of a 1.1 million decrease. The US imposed sanctions on a network of companies accused of trading Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products to East Asia. The Fed’s meeting minutes for June showed that a further 50 or 75 bps hike will be likely as policymakers worry about inflation more than tightening-induced recession. Elsewhere, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson refused to quit his post despite mounting pressure within his Conservative Party as over 40 resignations within the government have taken place.

US equities ended the day marginally higher as the DJIA gained 0.2% while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. 8 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher, with utilities and technology leading the way while energy slipped 1.7%. Uber and DoorDash fell 4.5% and 7.4% respectively as Amazon agreed to take a 2% stake in Grubhub. Rivian Automotive Inc surged 10.4% as its deliveries quadrupled. The US treasury yield curve remains inverted with the US 10Y yield up 1 bps at 2.921% and the US 2Y yield up 3bps at 2.994%. Elsewhere, Brent Crude fell below $100 during the day due to fears of a recession and European stocks rebounded, led by DAX’s 1.59% rally, after touching the March low.

DeFi & CeFi

  • DeFi TVL rose 0.64%; Binance Smart Chain TVL up 2.68% followed by Solana TVL up 2.60%
  • Voyager files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection; Voyager undergoes voluntary financial restructuring process
  • Korean crypto startup, Uprise, lost $20M in client funds trading LUNA futures
  • Binance to remove spot trading fees to celebrate its 5th anniversary
  • Crema Finance hacker agrees to white hat bounty, returning most of the proceeds from the exploit
  • Ethereum Testnet Sepolia successfully completed its transition to PoS
  • Shiba Inu plans to launch stablecoin, reward token, and collectible card game

In a tweet posted by Voyager’s CEO, Stephen Ehrlich, customers with Voyager will receive in exchange a combination of the crypto in their account(s), proceeds from the 3AC claims, common shares in the newly reorganized company, and Voyager tokens. This comes after Voyager had commenced bankruptcy proceedings on Tuesday. In other news, the Korean cryptocurrency startup Uprise lost $20M, representing 99% of its client funds. According to reports, the company was shorting LUNA futures at the time of the price drop but was caught off guard by periodic price increases, leading to the firm's liquidation. Elsewhere, The Sepolia testnet was the second public Ethereum testnet to complete the Merge transition. Before the official mainnet Merge, Ethereum still has to complete its final Merge transition on the Goerli testnet.


Moving on to on-chain data, the Number of Addresses with Non-Zero BTC balance continues to rise since the price collapse in May. These addresses frequently decline during bear markets as people give in and sell their possessions. Addresses only fell by 470K, though, in May, and they subsequently kept climbing. The severity of address capitulation had diminished, indicating that there is an increasing level of resolve amongst the average BTC holder.

Additionally, there are still significant net withdrawals from exchange reserves. Exchange outflows of this magnitude may be a sign that users remain upbeat about the long-term prospects of the wider crypto markets despite price falls. As recent CeFi insolvency episodes have made headlines in the market, another explanation for the net withdrawals is that consumers may be concerned about having their tokens on CeFi platforms, thus withdrawing them to self-custodied wallets.

Crypto Derivatives

  • 8-Hourly funding rates for BTC and ETH at 0.0054% and 0.01%; remaining altcoin funding rates are reverting to neutral
  • 30-day IV for BTC and ETH at 72.79% and 90.46% respectively
    • As compared to 76.82% and 95.34% yesterday
  • 30-day 25-delta skew for BTC and ETH at -11% and -15% respective
    • BTC rose to -9.9% through the day to eventually close above yesterday’s -12%
    • ETH remained flat
  • Put-call ratio for BTC and ETH at 0.89 and 0.61 respectively

In the futures market, total liquidations in the past 24H were $110M, with ETH seeing 38.9% of the total liquidations. This is a decrease from yesterday’s liquidation amount of $170.85M. Most of the liquidations were shorts totaling $71.02M.

As spot saw a less volatile trading session yesterday, IV fell across the curve for both BTC and ETH. Term structure for both BTC and ETH has also flipped into contango.

The last 24 hours also saw large orders of BTC-29Jul2022-22K Calls. Meanwhile, the top strategy in the past week was Bear Call Spreads which had the highest premium involved, clearing over $100M.

Crypto Technical Analysis

In TA, BTC notched up 3.5% slowly over the day despite volatility and trading volume decreasing throughout the day. BTC on the 4 and 1 hour charts look to be forming a bearish divergence as price continues to put in higher highs but RSI printed lower highs.

ETH is also revealing a strong bearish divergence in RSI and price on the hourly as the RSI has moved from overbought levels to under 70 despite the move up in price.

Daily Readings



Deal Flow

Yours sincerely,
Treehouse Research 🌳