BTC

ETH

S&P 500 Futures

$98,328.75

$3,788.50

$6,093.25

(+2.68%)

 (+2.53%)

(+0.42%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)

GM 🌳

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November 2024 Market Recap

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • Powell unconcerned with Donald Trump’s potential interference with Fed; Trump nominates Peter Navarro as senior economic adviser (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • Trump taps crypto-friendly Paul Atkins to lead the US SEC; Missouri Senate disqualifies CBDCs as legal tender (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Bitcoin shows room for growth; Key price clusters reveal stability and vulnerability (More in On-Chain)
  • BTCs IV remains steady; However, skew recovery signals bullish recovery (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC surges to challenge $99K level again; ETH experiences resistance below channel’s upper boundary, potentially forming new pattern (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reassured that the institution's independence remains secure despite President-elect Donald Trump’s frequent criticisms and proposals to increase presidential influence over monetary policy. Powell emphasized that the Fed’s independence is legally protected and broadly supported by Congress, allowing it to remain apolitical and focused on its dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability. Speaking weeks before the Fed's final policy meeting of 2024, Policymakers are deliberating an additional December cut, although Powell signaled a cautious approach given the relative strength of the U.S. economy, which he described as the “envy of other large economies.”Economists warn that Trump's proposed tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration policies could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially complicating the Fed’s trajectory for rate cuts. In this speech, he mentioned that Bitcoin is not used as a form of payment and is really volatile. However, he noted that it’s “like gold, only it's virtual.” Powell noted the Fed's current focus remains on near-term economic conditions, with adjustments to follow as Trump's policies take shape.

In other news, President-elect Donald Trump has announced Peter Navarro, a staunch China hawk and key economic adviser during his first term, as his senior counselor for trade and manufacturing. Navarro, known for championing Trump's "Buy American, Hire American" agenda, played a pivotal role in reshaping U.S. trade policies, including renegotiating NAFTA and the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). His new appointment is aimed at advancing Trump's focus on tariffs, reshoring manufacturing, and bolstering domestic industry. The announcement has sparked controversy as Navarro recently completed a four-month prison sentence for contempt of Congress. Additionally, Trump has nominated Michael Faulkender as deputy Treasury secretary. Faulkender, a former Treasury official under Trump and a professor at the University of Maryland, is expected to work alongside Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent to implement policies aimed at fostering economic growth and a "Great Economic Boom" for Americans. 

Yesterday, U.S. stocks surged to new record highs, driven by robust earnings from technology companies and encouraging remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.3%, with all three indexes hitting record intraday and closing highs. This continues the strong momentum from November’s market rally. Investors welcomed Powell’s comments at a New York event, which suggested confidence in the economy while awaiting the November jobs report due Friday morning for further insights into economic health and Federal Reserve policy. The release of the Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate data will be on December 6 at 21:30 SGT.

DeFi & CeFi

  • Trump engages crypto-friendly former regulator to lead the US SEC
  • Missouri Senate introduces bill to disqualify CBDCs as legal tender
  • Solana supply chain attack contained, but users face six-figure losses
  • Ethereum's Justin Drake sees no threat from Solana
  • Putin says no one can ban Bitcoin

President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Paul Atkins, a long-time advocate for cryptocurrency and innovation in financial markets, to lead the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Atkins, a former SEC commissioner under President George W. Bush and founder of Patomak Global Partners, has been a vocal supporter of balanced, pro-innovation regulation. His nomination has been widely praised by Republican lawmakers and crypto executives, who view his appointment as a departure from the "regulation by enforcement" approach under current SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Industry leaders anticipate that Atkins' leadership will bring greater clarity to the digital asset space and foster a more innovation-friendly regulatory environment.

Elsewhere, the Missouri Senate introduced SB 194, a bill aimed at banning central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as legal tender within the state. The bill, sponsored by Senator Brattin, seeks to prevent public entities from accepting or using CBDCs and revises the definition of "money" in the Uniform Commercial Code to exclude these digital currencies. Additionally, SB 194 mandates that the State Treasurer hold gold and silver reserves equivalent to at least 1% of all state funds and provides tax exemptions for capital gains on gold and silver sales. The bill also prohibits Missouri’s participation in any CBDC-related pilot programs or tests by the Federal Reserve or other federal agencies, reflecting concerns about CBDCs’ potential impact on financial privacy, state sovereignty, and monetary policy. Missouri’s stance is part of a broader national debate over CBDCs, with some advocating for their potential benefits and others raising concerns about their centralized control and privacy implications.

On-Chain

According to @_Checkonchain, Bitcoin's current price levels indicate that it is above only 1 out of 9 models used to assess when average investors hold substantial unrealized profits. Historically, these levels prompt profit-taking behavior. Notably, Bitcoin would only start appearing "overheated" under these models at prices exceeding $120,000, which suggests there may still be significant room for upward movement before hitting levels associated with heightened profit-taking activity.

In another analysis of Bitcoin, Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) highlights a critical range between $87,000 and $98,000, where supply concentration is intensifying. This metric, which maps the redistribution of Bitcoin supply across price levels, reveals limited activity below $87,000, creating a potential "air pocket" with little support in case of a price correction. As the market remains in the early stages of price discovery, this imbalance showcases the importance of monitoring these key ranges to assess market stability and investor sentiment.

Derivatives

  • The funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained flat at 56.36 and 70.60, respectively.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC remained positive at 3.95 and 4.03, respectively.
  • The futures market witnessed $513.78M in liquidations in the past day, with longs representing 64.61%.

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

39.68%

ETH

Binance

Bybit

37.55%

XRP

Binance

Bybit

30.84%

BNB

Binance

OKX

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.

BTC’s at-the-money IV for 30-day contracts remains steady at 53.66, while the 7-day IV is slightly lower at 51.64. The steady outlook suggests that it is due to US companies adding 146,000 private payrolls last month, adding to the calm in the market. However, IV has been higher than that over the last three days, suggesting that investors are anticipating the US Employment data tomorrow at 21:30 SGT. 

Bitcoin's term structure remains in contango, with minimal variation across the curve, indicating a modest premium for longer-dated contracts. Near-term IV reflects limited directional conviction among market participants.

BTC's skew has seen a significant recovery, with the 7-day call-put skew rising sharply to 2.62 from -0.07 yesterday, signaling a shift toward near-term bullish sentiment. Similarly, the 30-day skew increased to 3.95, indicating growing optimism and a bullish outlook over the longer term.

Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted a session in which call options were the top instrument traded. BTC trades featured the purchase of 700x 7-Dec-24 $100K Calls and 550x 6-Dec-24 $95K Puts, alongside notable ETH flows, including the sale of 4000x 27-Dec-24 $3800 Straddles and the purchase of 2250x (Inverse) 27-Dec-24 $4400/31-Jan-25 $6000 Call Calendar spreads.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC surged by nearly 3% last night with the US market opening. As such, our previous analysis was validated as BTC bounced off the $95K immediate support. Currently, the price hovers slightly above $98K, encountering resistance again at the previously identified $99K level, which serves as the key resistance before BTC challenges the $100K mark. On the other hand, if the price retraces from this level, the $95K will continue to serve as the immediate support, marking a 3.2% potential downside.

ETH has followed similar price movements with a surge. However, the upward momentum couldn't sustain the previously identified channel’s upper boundary and quickly retraced as the RSI reached the overbought territory at 70. This may indicate that the price is moving out of the ascending channel pattern, as the local tops since late November have formed a different trendline, which is flatter than the channel’s upper boundary and may serve as the resistance going forward. Meanwhile, the channel’s lower boundary continues to act as immediate support at approximately $3.65K, representing a potential 3% downside.

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