🌳 D.O.G.E Campaign to Cut Federal Workforce Targets Key U.S. Job Sectors; Trump Appoints All In Host David Sacks as Lead Policy Adviser on AI and Crypto

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

• D.O.G.E Campaign to cut federal workforce targets key U.S. Job sectors; China publicly urged industries to phase out American-made chips (More in Macro & TradFi)
• Trump appoints All In host David Sacks as lead policy adviser on AI and Crypto; Anchorage Digital to support Liquid Staking Ethereum (More in DeFi & CeFi)
• BTC's rally to ATH reflects whale accumulation; Declining exchange reserves tighten supply, boosting prices (More in On-Chain)
• BTC IV spikes up as spot prices drop; Bullish sentiment grows amid US policy optimism (More in Crypto Derivatives)
• BTC breaks above $100K before dropping back down; ETH sees similar movements, yet confined in the previously identified parallel channel (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

Elon Musk’s drive to drastically reduce the federal workforce under Donald Trump’s administration threatens to dismantle one of the few remaining pillars of stability in the American job market. With Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy helming a new “Department of Government Efficiency,” the aim is large-scale cuts, potentially eliminating hundreds of billions of dollars in annual spending through “mass headcount reductions.” By removing remote work arrangements and offering early retirement packages, they hope to push many public servants out the door—particularly those in specialized, emerging fields like clean energy and climate-related work, areas Musk has publicly singled out for dismissal. Private-sector hiring has softened, and job seekers have increasingly turned to the public sector for stability. The prospective cuts carry profound implications; whereas the private-sector job creation tapers off and federal openings diminish, the overall labor market could become more precarious. 

In other news, in response to the latest round of stringent U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment, China has publicly urged its industries to phase out the use of American-made chips. Four government-backed Chinese trade associations, representing the vast majority of the country’s semiconductor demand, have told their members to treat U.S. chips as “no longer safe or reliable” and to seek alternatives from Chinese or other foreign suppliers. This marks a significant escalation in the U.S.-China technology conflict. Until recently, such moves against American components were discussed quietly in Beijing, but now Chinese authorities are openly pushing to disentangle from the U.S.. The rapid announcement came just as the U.S. tightened restrictions designed to prevent China from accessing advanced semiconductors critical for artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge applications. The result may be a more splintered global chip industry, with intensifying competition, complicated supply chains, and strategic attempts by each side to secure the minerals, materials, and technology they need—without relying on the other.

On Thursday, U.S. stocks pulled back from record highs as investors awaited Friday's November jobs report. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.19% and 0.17%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.55%. Notable movers included Synopsys, which fell 12% after issuing a disappointing outlook, and Fiserv, which declined 5.5% after its CEO was tapped to lead the Social Security Administration. Uber and Lyft shares dropped around 10% after Waymo announced plans to expand its robotaxi service to Miami, heightening competition in the ridesharing sector. Treasury yields remained steady, with the 10-year yield at 4.18%. Investors are focused on Friday's jobs report for signals about the Federal Reserve's next moves, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating a cautious approach to rate cuts at the central bank's upcoming meeting on December 18. Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate data will be released tonight at 21:30 SGT. 

DeFi & CeFi

• Trump appoints All In host David Sacks as lead policy adviser on AI and Crypto
• Anchorage Digital to support Liquid Staking Ethereum
• Circle says USDC is first stablecoin to meet Canada’s new listing rules
• SEC defends amended suit against Binance, CZ over securities claims
• Aptos to accelerate innovation with new tech, investment in India

President-elect Donald Trump has appointed venture capitalist and All In podcast co-host David Sacks as his lead policy adviser on artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. In a post on Truth Social on December 6, Trump named Sacks the "White House A.I. & Crypto Czar," emphasizing the critical role these sectors will play in maintaining U.S. competitiveness. Sacks will work on creating a legal framework to provide clarity for the crypto industry, helping it thrive in the U.S. Sacks' appointment aligns with Trump’s campaign promises to make the U.S. the "world capital of crypto," establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and encourage all Bitcoin mining to occur within the country. In addition to his crypto-focused responsibilities, Sacks will be tasked with safeguarding online speech and protecting it from what Trump described as Big Tech bias and censorship. He will also lead the Presidential Council of Advisors for Science and Technology, further solidifying his influence in shaping technology and policy in the new administration.

Elsewhere, Anchorage Digital has become the first U.S.-chartered federally regulated bank to support liquid Ether (ETH) staking, announcing on December 5 that it has integrated Liquid Collective’s Liquid Staked ETH (LsETH). This liquid staking token represents ETH staked on the Ethereum blockchain and allows institutions like venture capital firms, wealth managers, and blockchain protocols to participate directly from their Anchorage Digital accounts. By offering this service, Anchorage Digital Bank NA becomes the first U.S. bank chartered by the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) to provide liquid staking participation. This move comes at a time when institutional interest in Ethereum staking solutions is growing, with the potential for U.S. Ethereum ETFs to feature staking yield. Liquid Collective, which supports the LsETH protocol, focuses on regulatory compliance and security, utilizing institutional node operators like Coinbase and Figment. 

On-Chain

According to KriptoBaykusV2 on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is leaving exchanges at a significant pace, driven by large whales transferring holdings to long-term storage. The trend, reflected in persistent negative exchange netflows since late October, reduces Bitcoin’s available supply on exchanges, easing selling pressure and creating favorable conditions for price increases. With Bitcoin recently reaching $98.9K, this supply-demand imbalance appears to underpin the rally, supported by steady demand and a declining sell-side presence.

In another analysis, Santiment showed that BTC recently reached an all-time high of ~$103,656 on Coinbase, a milestone driven by significant accumulation by large holders, or whales and sharks. Over the past seven weeks, these entities added 103,960 BTC, marking the fastest accumulation rate since early 2021. Whales hold a significant influence on Bitcoin’s price action, as their buying trends historically shape long-term market directions. 

Derivatives

• The funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive.
• Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH rose to 61.36 and 73.26, respectively.
• The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC remained flat at 3.54 while that of ETH rose to 5.06.
• The futures market witnessed $1.03B in liquidations in the past day, with longs representing 71.90%.

BTC’s at-the-money IV for 30-day contracts rose to 58.89 while the 7-day IV rose higher to 61.30. The volatility spike coincides with BTC's spot price slipping below the $100K mark, as traders adjust positions ahead of the U.S. Employment data release scheduled for 21:30 SGT.

BTC's options term structure has entered backwardation, with traders focusing on near-term contracts as they anticipate increased price volatility in the upcoming week. Notably, 31.5% of the options activity are calls bought, signaling a bullish bias among market participants despite the heightened uncertainty.

BTC's skew remains positive despite the decline in spot prices, with the 7-day call-put skew at 1.21 and the 30-day skew rising to 3.54, reflecting growing bullish sentiment, particularly over the longer term. This optimism may stem from the recent appointment of venture capitalist David Sacks as the “White House A.I. & Crypto Czar” by Donald Trump, signaling a pro-crypto stance and potentially favorable policy developments for the sector.

Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted a session in which call options were the top instrument traded. Key BTC trades included the sale of 1000x 27-Dec-24 110k Calls, alongside the purchase of 450x 27-Dec-24 110k Calls and 425x 7-Dec-24 106k Calls. Additionally, 400x 27-Dec-24 120k Calls and 325x 31-Jan-25 140k Calls were sold. For ETH, significant activity was observed with the purchase of 6750x 27-Dec-24 4.4k Calls, the sale of 5000x 31-Jan-25 4k/5k Call Spreads, and the purchase of 3750x 27-Dec-24 4.3k Calls. Further trades included the purchase of 3500x 27-Dec-24 4.2k Calls and the sale of 2900x 7-Dec-24 3.9k Puts.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC has officially surged above $100K, marking a historic moment in the crypto industry, reaching a high of nearly $104K. However, the price quickly retraced as traders took profits above the new high, dropping back below the $100K mark to a low of nearly $92K, before bouncing back to the current level. The RSI also saw a significant decline, moving from the overbought zone to the middle range. The lower trendline acted as a support zone around $96.5K, with $99K-$100K serving as the next resistance zone. However, BTC is likely to experience high volatility in the days ahead as it attempts to establish long-term support above the $100K level. Traders should cautiously monitor their risks and hedge as necessary.

While ETH also saw a similar surge yesterday, the crypto major did not break the previously identified resistance at the ascending channel’s upper boundary, located around $3.98K. However, following BTC's large retracement, ETH similarly declined, reaching a low of $3.65K, coinciding with the channel’s lower boundary, before climbing back up to the middle range. As such, the channel’s boundaries continue to serve as the immediate key support and resistance levels, with the $3.9K level acting as a minor resistance, aligned with the previously identified trendline.

Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets

By TRHX Research

Daily Readings

TradFi

• Asia markets mostly lower as investors assess Japan spending data; India rate decision in focus.

• Ulta Beauty shares pop as retailer beats earnings expectations despite demand fears

• Lululemon stock jumps as international growth helps to offset slowing U.S. sales

• McKinsey unit to pay $123 million to settle claims it bribed African officials

• US court rejects Boeing’s Max plea deal over company’s DEI policies

• Leader of South Korea’s ruling party calls for Yoon’s immediate removal

• Macron vows not to step aside after fall of French government

• Chevron cuts capital budget for first time since Covid-19 oil crash

• China automakers pivot to hybrids for Europe to counter EV tariffs

• Musk's xAI raises around $6 bln in equity financing

• Novo Nordisk to cut US list prices of two insulin products by more than 70%

• China’s shift to local chips gains momentum from latest US export controls

• Effort to cut federal workforce takes aim at key US jobs engine

Crypto

• Trump appoints former PayPal COO David Sacks as AI and crypto czar

• Circle says USDC is first stablecoin to meet Canada’s new listing rules

• Bitcoin sudden drop to $93K wipes out $303M of longs within minutes

• SEC defends amended suit against Binance, CZ over securities claims

• Coinbase-led TRUSThub set to enhance digital asset transparency

• Circle balances compliance in Canada with operational efficiency through staff layoffs

• Ripple addresses RLUSD New York delay, as XRP’s growth fuels ecosystem hype

• Cardano’s Hydra shatters 1 million TPS during virtual Doom tournament

• Base reaches another all-time high with 8.8 million daily transactions on its network

• Cosmos-based Noble first to launch custom stablecoin using cryptodollar infrastructure startup M^0

• Hawk Tuah girl says ‘team hasn’t sold’ as her memecoin tumbles after launch

• Anchorage Digital to support liquid Ether staking

• Crypto liquidations soar to highest since 2021 as bitcoin drops below $100,000

Yours sincerely,
TRHX Research (Formerly Treehouse Research) 🌳