BTC

ETH

S&P Futures 500

$69,413.13

$3,662.39

$5,364.75

(-0.21%)

 (-0.82%)

(+0.19%)

Note: All percentages shown above are referenced to the previous business work day's 09:00 (GMT+8)


GM Treehouser 🌳


Welcome to our Treehouse Daily newsletter, where Treehouse brings you financial news and insights free daily! We believe you’ll find this helpful.

Also, in case you have missed it, check out our latest research piece 👇

You can also access our research articles on the Bloomberg Terminal with the command “NH TRH < GO >"!


Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

  • Apple integrates ChatGPT to boost AI; ECB may hold interest rates amid inflation concerns (More in Macro & TradFi)
  • SEC currently reviewing ProShares Ether ETF application; Fidelity partners with JPMorgan to tokenize fund (More in DeFi & CeFi)
  • Justin Sun deposits $21M worth of various tokens into Binance for potential profit taking (More in On-Chain)
  • BTC IVs on the decline; BTC’s 25-delta skews remain positive (More in Crypto Derivatives)
  • BTC approaches the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band; ETH continues to hover around the previously identified support level (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

Apple announced a partnership with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into its devices, unveiling its new "Apple Intelligence" system at the Worldwide Developers Conference. CEO Tim Cook emphasized this as a significant step in leveraging AI to enhance Siri's capabilities and deliver personalized features. Apple aims to protect user privacy by running AI models locally on devices. The partnership aims to bolster Apple's AI offerings amidst competition from major tech players like Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. Despite this, market reactions were lukewarm, with Apple's shares dropping 1.9% on the day. Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk criticized the integration, citing security concerns, and threatened to ban all Apple devices in his companies.

Elsewhere, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB could maintain current interest rates for multiple policy meetings despite recently lowering borrowing costs for the first time in nearly five years. She clarified that the recent rate cut does not signal a continuous downward trend, emphasizing that the ECB is not on a predetermined path and could leave rates unchanged depending on economic developments, particularly labor costs and earnings. Lagarde's comments suggest the ECB might not cut rates again soon, aligning with expectations for the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England to hold rates steady amid persistent inflation. The ECB aims to curb inflation to its 2% target, potentially extending its tightening policies until late next year.

Lastly, Wall Street closed higher and held near all-time highs as investors await a midweek double whammy - a Fed decision and US CPI. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.18%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.39%. Nvidia gained 0.75% following a 10-for-one stock split, while GameStop dropped 12.01% due to a share sale plan. Apple declined 1.91% despite announcing a partnership with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into iPhones via Siri and introducing new operating systems along with the Vision Pro sales launch in Asia. Investors are now focused on the US Core CPI data release on Wednesday at 20:30 SGT, followed by the Fed's interest rate decision and a new Dot Plot release on Thursday at 02:00 SGT.

DeFi & CeFi

  • SEC in review of ProShares ETH ETF application
  • Fidelity partners with JPMorgan to tokenize shares of money market fund
  • South Korea labels mass-produced NFTs as virtual assets
  • Fireblocks adds Coinbase International for perpetual futures, spot trading
  • Optimism reaches ‘Stage 1’ decentralization, implementing fault proofs

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently reviewing a spot Ether ETF application from ProShares, following its recent approval of similar applications from eight other asset managers. This application, submitted after the SEC greenlit the 19b-4 filings on May 23, is now open for public comment before the SEC decides within 45 days whether to approve, reject, or extend the review period. ProShares, which previously launched a Bitcoin Strategy ETF and a spot investment vehicle for ETH futures, is looking to expand its offerings with the spot Ether ETF, pending SEC approval of the S-1 registration statements necessary for trading to commence, potentially in July.

Fidelity International has partnered with JPMorgan's Onyx Digital Assets to tokenize shares of its money market fund (MMF), leveraging JPMorgan’s Ethereum-based blockchain network for enhanced efficiency in transactions. This collaboration aims to improve the delivery of margin requirements and reduce both transaction costs and operational risks. The initiative marks a significant step in using blockchain technology to manage real-world assets, with plans to extend the range of tokenized assets beyond money markets to equities and fixed incomes. This move reflects broader trends in financial services where major institutions like JPMorgan and BlackRock are exploring the potential of tokenization to transform asset management and trading.

On-Chain

Spotonchain identified that a wallet associated with Justin Sun recently deposited $21M worth of AAVE, MKR, COMP, and LQTY to Binance. Based on the wallet's previous on-chain transactions, these positions are currently sitting on a $7M profit if Justin Sun decides to take profit. Investors should exercise caution when trading these tokens, as Justin Sun’s actions could induce significant market volatility in the near term.

Derivatives

  • Funding rates remained positive for BTC and ETH.
  • Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained relatively unchanged at 50.63% and 62.38% respectively.
  • The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC increased to 2.78% while ETH decreased to 3.17%.
  • The futures market witnessed $94.48M in liquidations, with longs  representing 78.59%.

Top 3 USDT Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Opportunities

Net Annualized APR

Perp (USDT pair)

Long on

Short On

14.60%

ETH

OKX

dYdX

10.95%

BNB

Binance

Bybit

9.16%

BNB

Binance

OKX

Notes:

1) Pairs observed include BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, LTC, and DOGE vs. USDT perps. 

2) CEXs observed include Binance, Bybit, OKX & dYdX.

3) Lookback period is 24 hours.


Today's BTC implied volatility (IV) chart for At The Money (ATM) maturities shows a notable decrease for both the 7-day and 30-day maturities. This suggests a calming in immediate and medium-term volatility expectations after a recent peak.

Today's BTC term structure continues to display a contango shape, showing a spike in immediate-term volatility expectations, which swiftly levels off. This is an indication that while traders are preparing for some near-term turbulence, they expect the market to stabilize in the medium to long term.

BTC skew chart reveals that both the 7-day and 30-day skews are closely aligned, exhibiting minor fluctuations that signal a uniform sentiment among traders for both short and medium-term outlooks. Notably, the skews have consistently remained above zero, indicating a mild preference for protective options, suggesting traders are cautiously optimistic but still wary of potential downside risks.

Lastly, @Paradigm’s option flows show BTC options trades including buying a 200 contract Call Calendar for June 28 at $70K to September 27 at $90K. Additionally, 117 contracts of a June 28 $55K Call were sold, and 100 contracts of a September 27 $60K Put were bought. For ETH, significant trades involved buying a 2300 contract Put Spread for June 14 ranging from $3.5K to $3.3K. Other trades included selling 1000 contracts of a June 28 $3.3K Call and buying 1000 contracts of a June 14 $3.7K Put.

Crypto Technical Analysis

Moving on to technical analysis, BTC experienced minimal movement in the last 24 hours. As a result, our previous analysis remains valid: the immediate resistance level is situated at $71K, while the immediate support is at $67.5K. However, with the reduced volatility, BTC's price is now approaching the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band, indicating a potential for a short-term reversal that traders should be cautious of.

Moving on to ETH, it has similarly experienced minimal movement in the last 24 hours. As a result, the ETH price continues to hover around the support level with no clear signs of a break or reversal. Our previous analysis remains relevant, with the current resistance level situated at $3.9K, representing an 8% increase. Additionally, the RSI has remained low at 39.53, approaching oversold territory, which indicates that a short-term reversal might be imminent.

Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets

By Treehouse Research

Daily Readings

TradFi

Crypto

Deal Flow

Yours sincerely,
Treehouse Research 🌳