🌳 Adani Faces U.S. Charges in $265M Bribery Case; MicroStrategy Hits $100B Market Cap Fueled by Bitcoin Surge

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Our Daily View

What We Are Covering Today

• Adani faces U.S. charges in $265M bribery scheme; UK inflation jumps to 2.3%, BoE signals gradual rate cuts (More in Macro & TradFi)
• MicroStrategy hits $100B market cap; Trump eyes pro-crypto Teresa Goody Guillén for SEC (More in DeFi & CeFi)
• Near 10B stablecoins minted in the last month; 100% of the 14 million BTC Long-term Holders moved into profit. (More in On-Chain)
• BTC options market sees volatility dip; Term Structure contango returns(More in Crypto Derivatives)
• BTC created a new ATH of $95.1K and is approaching overbought territory; ETH maintained its consolidation phase (More in Crypto Technical Analysis)

Macro & TradFi

Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, chairman of the Adani Group, faces charges in the U.S. for allegedly orchestrating a multibillion-dollar bribery and fraud scheme, according to federal prosecutors. The indictment accuses Adani, his nephew Sagar Adani, and others of paying $265 million in bribes to secure government contracts tied to a solar power project expected to generate $2 billion in profit. Additionally, Adani and associates allegedly concealed their activities to raise over $3 billion in financing through loans and bonds. Arrest warrants have been issued, but Adani remains in India. These charges follow allegations of offshore financial misconduct by Hindenburg Research in 2023, which led to a $150 billion loss in Adani Group stock value.

In other news, UK inflation rose to 2.3% in October, exceeding expectations of 2.2% and marking a sharp increase from September’s 1.7%, driven by higher domestic energy tariffs. Core inflation edged up to 3.3%, defying forecasts of a decline, while services inflation, a key measure of domestic price pressures, hit 5%. The unexpected jump underscores the Bank of England's cautious approach to interest rate cuts as investors revised expectations for rate reductions downward. Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized that borrowing costs would decrease only gradually, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures from wages and fiscal policies. This data complicates the BoE's outlook as global uncertainties and domestic budget measures signal sustained inflation risks into 2025.

Wall Street ended mixed on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq dipping 0.11% amid geopolitical tensions and disappointing retail earnings, while the Dow rose 0.32% and the S&P 500 closed flat. Target's sharp 21.4% decline weighed on the consumer discretionary sector after a muted holiday sales forecast, while Nvidia fell 0.76% during the session and slipped further post-market as its Q4 revenue forecast narrowly exceeded expectations but failed to excite investors. Broader market caution reflected concerns over Russia-Ukraine escalations and looming geopolitical risks. Cryptocurrency stocks, buoyed by Bitcoin's rise above $94,000, provided a bright spot, with gains in MicroStrategy (+10%) and MARA Holdings (+13.9%). Trading volumes remained below the 20-day average, signaling a more subdued investor response amid a mix of corporate and macroeconomic uncertainties.

DeFi & CeFi

• MicroStrategy breaks top 100 U.S publicly traded companies
• Trump Said to Consider Crypto Lawyer Teresa Goody Guillén to Lead SEC
• SEC Distributes $4.6M to BitClave Investors
• Phantom outranks WhatsApp and Instagram among top free iPhone apps
• BitGo launches Singapore subsidiary

MicroStrategy has entered the top 100 U.S. publicly traded companies by market capitalization, now nearing $100 billion, driven by its aggressive bitcoin acquisition strategy and a 528% year-to-date stock surge. Following Bitcoin's record high of over $94,000, the company upsized its latest zero-interest convertible debt offering to $2.6 billion from $1.75 billion to fund additional Bitcoin purchases. Microstrategy currently has 331,200 bitcoins valued at over $30 billion, 

In other news, President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering Teresa Goody Guillén, a seasoned securities lawyer and blockchain expert, to chair the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A former SEC attorney and current co-lead of BakerHostetler's blockchain practice, Goody Guillén is praised for her deep understanding of securities law and her balanced approach to crypto regulation. Industry advocates and Trump’s transition team favor her as a “pro-crypto” reformer to reverse Gary Gensler’s enforcement-heavy regulatory style, signaling a shift towards clarity and business-friendly policies.  

On-Chain

According to Glassnode’s weekly analysis, over the past 30 days, an unprecedented $9.7 billion in stablecoins has been minted, with the vast majority funneled directly to centralized exchanges. This aligns almost perfectly with total stablecoin capital flows during the same period, underscoring their central role in driving market liquidity and fueling activity. The increase in stablecoin balances on exchanges signals heightened speculative demand as investors prepare to capitalize on emerging trends amid post-election optimism and accelerating bullish momentum in the crypto markets.

In the same report, Glassnode has also indicated that as Bitcoin surged past the $75.6k mark, it marked a critical threshold for long-term holders (LTHs), with 100% of the 14 million BTC they hold moving into profit. This milestone triggered an uptick in profit-taking, leading to a notable balance decline of over 200k BTC since the all-time high (ATH) breakout. Despite this selling activity, a substantial portion of Bitcoin remains under LTH ownership, suggesting that many of these holders are strategically waiting for even higher price levels before injecting additional liquidity into circulation. 

Derivatives

• The funding rate for BTC and ETH remained positive.
• Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC rose to 60.68 while that of ETH stayed flat at 64.51.
• The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC dipped to 3.21, while that of ETH remained flat at 2.71.
• The futures market witnessed $345.18M in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with longs representing 68.53%.

IV remains steady, with 7-day at-the-money (ATM) IV slightly down to 57.02 and 30-day ATM IV at 58.16. The market is calm, potentially influenced by Michael Saylor's ongoing leveraged Bitcoin purchases and reports of former President Trump considering pro-crypto personnel for key positions, including Teresa Goody Guillén—formerly co-lead of BakerHostetler's blockchain practice—for the SEC Chair.

BTC's term structure has reverted back into contango, though IV has dipped significantly for the front end of the curve. Given BTC's rise to 95 K, a large number of call options were exercised. The 24-hour change in Open Interest corroborates this view with a notable reduction in call positions, particularly at the $85K strike, with a decrease of approximately 1,794 BTC call contracts.

Skew remains positive, with the 7-day call-put skew at 2.52 and the 30-day skew at 3.51, though both have dipped compared to yesterday. The dip in skew suggests BTC options traders may be actively hedging their delta exposure following Bitcoin's strong rally over the past two weeks, possibly anticipating a near-term correction or heightened volatility.

Lastly, @Paradigm highlighted bullish instruments bought for both BTC and ETH. Key BTC trades included the sale of 1,000x 28-Mar-25 $85K/$120K Call Spreads and 1,000x 28-Mar-25 $85K/$130K Call Spreads, alongside the purchase of 950x 27-Dec-24 $100K/31-Jan-25 $110K Call Calendars. On the ETH side, significant activity featured the purchase of 2,500x 27-Dec-24 $3.3K/28-Mar-25 $4K Call Calendars and 1,250x 27-Dec-24 $3.4K/$3.9K Call Spreads, with the sale of 2,000x 27-Dec-24 $4K Calls.

Crypto Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, BTC has successfully broken through the $94k resistance level, and the price has created a new all-time high of $95.1K. This breakout has led to a higher support level, with $92.5K and $87.1K acting as immediate supports and being key levels to monitor for maintaining the bullish momentum. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, which signals increased volatility and potential for further price movement. As BTC approaches the upper Bollinger Band, it could face some resistance if the price struggles to maintain momentum. The RSI is rising steadily with current levels at 64.61, indicating a healthy uptrend and being slightly below overbought territory. If it continues climbing and moves above 70, it could signal an overbought condition, possibly indicating a short-term pull-back or consolidation.

On ETH’s 4-hour chart, ETH maintained its consolidation trend, with the price oscillating around $3.1K. The main resistance level is at $3.3K, while the immediate support levels are at $2.8K and $2.4K. This consolidation between these support and resistance levels indicates that ETH is moving sideways without a clear direction. The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands confirms this phase, which suggests a period of low volatility and consolidation. Traders should monitor the above indicators for confirmation of the breakout direction of ETH.

Access institutional-grade commentary on TradFi × Crypto markets

By TRHX Research

Daily Readings

TradFi

• Billionaire Gautam Adani charged in New York with massive fraud, bribery scheme.

• Nvidia’s revenue nearly doubles as AI chip demand remains strong

• Archegos’s Bill Hwang sentenced to 18 years in prison

• US House panel keeps Gaetz sex allegation report under wraps

• South Korea Nov 1-20 exports rise 5.8% year-on-year

• Apple makes $100 mln investment proposal for new plant in Indonesia

• US awards up to $2.2 billion to speed clean-hydrogen development

• Gold gains for third consecutive day on escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions

• Oil settles down on strong US supply, losses capped by Ukraine escalation

• PIMCO bullish on stocks on US soft landing hopes, cautious on inflation

• UK inflation jumps to 2.3%, underscoring BoE's stance for gradual rate cuts

• Alphabet’s VC arm backs little-known SAP rival Odoo, boosting valuation to $5.3 billion

Crypto

• Trump team contemplating creation of new White House crypto role

• Memecoin Launchpad GraFun Expands to Ethereum to Clinch New Users

• Frank McCourt's Decentralized Internet Project Enters Ethereum Ecosystem With Consensys Partnership

• SEC Distributes $4.6M to BitClave Investors

• SEC delays Franklin Templeton crypto index ETF decision

• Shanghai judge says cryptocurrency is a commodity, legal to own

• MicroStrategy eyes $2.6 billion raise for Bitcoin acquisition as it breaks into top 100 US firms

• Kraken’s founder Jesse Powell backs Brian Brooks for SEC Chair

• South Korea bans ETFs tracking crypto-related companies

• Japan to ease crypto taxation under new stimulus package

• FTX co-founder Gary Wang sentenced to ‘time served’ as FTX criminal cases end

• Crypto phishing scam nets $129 million in USDT then funds mysteriously return

• BitGo launches Singapore subsidiary to bolster services in APAC region

Deal Flow

• Modular DEX protocol Valantis raises seed round at $40 million valuation

Yours sincerely,
TRHX Research (Formerly Treehouse Research) 🌳